A METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO FORECASTING FUEL CONSUMPTION IN THE COUNTRY UNDER CONDITIONS OF LIMITED ACCESS TO STATISTICAL INFORMATION

• Datum: 2026
• 1. Verfasser: Maliarenko, Olena
• Format: Artikel
• Sprache: Ukrainisch
• Veröffentlicht: General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2026
• Schlagworte: forecast; consumption; fuel; coal; statistical observations; methodical approach.
• Online Zugang: https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/957
• Назва журналу: System Research in Energy

The article proposes a methodological approach to forecasting energy consumption using existing forms of statistical reporting on energy, which are used to form energy efficiency indicators for the base year, for which the forecast is made. Methodological approaches to forecasting energy consumption have changed more than once over the past thirty years. The availability of statistical reporting forms on fuel and energy consumption by types of products produced and services provided allowed for energy efficiency analysis and forecasting energy consumption at the level of production processes and services provided. The transition after 2015 to a form of statistical reporting by classification by types of economic activity forced researchers to change the methodological approach to forming energy efficiency indicators for the base year and the calculation model: instead of specific fuel, electric and thermal energy consumption per unit of output, they began to use energy intensity indicators of gross added value of sections of the economy according to the classifier. The absence of this information from 2021 and the formation of statistical observations on fuel and energy consumption by expenditure areas forced us to once again review the methodology for calculating the forecast volumes of energy resource consumption. The purpose of the article is to create a methodical approach to forming a calculation model for forecasting fuel consumption (using the example of a coal consumption forecast), based on existing forms of statistical reporting on energy. A calculation model for forecasting energy consumption by expenditure areas is provided: transformation, final consumption, own consumption by the energy sector, non-energy consumption, losses. The features of determining consumption for the energy and production sections of the Industrial sector are highlighted. A coal forecast by expenditure areas is made for scenarios of the post-war revival of Ukraine until 2030.