ASSESSING THE TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE INTEGRATED POWER SYSTEM OF UKRAINE UNDER HIGH PENETRATION OF WIND AND SOLAR GENERATION

• Datum: 2026
• Hauptverfasser: Babak, Vitalii, Kulyk, Mykhailo, Zaporozhets, Artur, Denysov, Viktor, Kostenko, Ganna
• Format: Artikel
• Sprache: Englisch
• Veröffentlicht: General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2026
• Schlagworte: renewable energy sources; Integrated Power Systems; grid stability and control; power regulators; mathematical models.
• Online Zugang: https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/960
• Назва журналу: System Research in Energy

This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the technical and economic performance of the Integrated Power System (IPS) of Ukraine under conditions of high penetration of wind and solar power generation. The relevance of the study is driven by the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources (RES), which introduces increased generation variability, amplifies power imbalances, and complicates real-time system operation and control. The study analyzes the current state of the Ukrainian power system, including structural changes in generation and consumption under wartime conditions and the associated reduction in available capacity. Particular attention is given to daily and seasonal load variability, the stochastic nature of wind and solar generation, and the limited operational flexibility of conventional generation assets. A quantitative assessment is conducted using an optimization framework based on an economic–technological forecasting methodology for determining optimal system development and operation parameters. The model explicitly incorporates battery energy storage systems (BESS), pumped storage power plants (PSPP), constraints on renewable generation curtailment, and balancing market mechanisms. Scenario-based simulations up to 2030, assuming an increase in the RES share to 45–50%, indicate that power imbalances may rise to 600–900 MW, while reserve requirements could reach 6–7 GW. The results demonstrate that the deployment of BESS with a capacity of 1.5–2 GW can reduce imbalances by 30–40%, significantly decrease RES curtailment, and yield annual savings of €80–120 million in balancing costs. The proposed approach enables a more robust evaluation of power system performance under high RES penetration and provides a methodological basis for enhancing system flexibility, reliability, and economic efficiency. The findings can support strategic decision-making regarding the modernization and sustainable development of the IPS of Ukraine.