ANALYSIS OF METHODS AND ALGORITHMS FOR STUDYING THE REGIME RELIABILITY OF POWER SYSTEMS IN CONDITIONS OF CASCADE FAILURE PROGRESSION

• Дата: 2023
• Автори: Bardyk, Ye., Bondarenko, О., Zakliuka, I.
• Формат: Стаття
• Мова: Українська
• Опубліковано: Institute of Renewable Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2023
• Теми: regime reliability; cascade failure; risk; power system; probability; statistical modeling.
• Онлайн доступ: https://ve.org.ua/index.php/journal/article/view/406
• Назва журналу: Vidnovluvana energetika

The causes and escalation mechanisms of the most prominent systemic accidents and cascading failures that occurred in different countries around the world in the last decade have been analyzed. Three gradations of possible state changes in electric power systems (EPS) from the perspective of the risk of accidents have been identified. Based on the results of the analysis of sequences of events in the conditions of the progression of system accidents, a generalized scenario of the cascading process of the progression of the accident was formed. Based on the results of the analysis of sequences of events in the conditions of the system failures progression, a generalized scenario of the cascading failure process has been formulated. A comprehensive probabilistic-statistical approach and algorithm for studying the regime reliability of EPS in the event of equipment failures and the progression of cascading failures have been proposed. This approach is grounded on the use of risk as a reliability indicator, enabling the determination of the operational resource and the probability of equipment failure within the observation time interval. It also allows for the assessment of the risk of cascading accidents and the severity level of the system's final states in conditions of information uncertainty.