FUZZY-STATISTICAL MODELLING OF OVERHEAD LINES FOR ESTIMATING THE FAILURE PROBABILITY IN THE TASKS OF ANALYSING THE POWER SYSTEMS OPERATIONAL RISK

• Дата: 2025
• Автори: Bardyk , Ye., Zakliuka , I.
• Формат: Стаття
• Мова: Ukrainian
• Опубліковано: Institute of Renewable Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2025
• Теми: modelling; overhead line; technical condition; diagnostics; electrical equipment; fuzzy logic; re-source; risk; defect rate; failure probability.
• Онлайн доступ: https://ve.org.ua/index.php/journal/article/view/525
• Назва журналу: Vidnovluvana energetika

The paper deals with the development of mathematical models of overhead lines (OHL) of different voltage classes to assess the risk of emergencies in power systems with different types power plants in equipment failures case. In particular, the main factors that significantly reduce the reliability of modern power systems are identified. A num-ber of features related to the damageability of overhead line elements with a voltage of 35-750 kV, as well as the main causes of overhead line failures, have been identified. A linguistic mathematical model for determining the total ser-vice life and failure probability of overhead lines based on the aggregation of information on the technical condition of individual functional units has been built. A probabilistic-statistical analysis of technological disturbances on OHL 330 V overhead lines with an observation interval of 45 years was performed. Probabilistic laws of failure dis-tribution were formed for the time intervals. The probabilities of overhead line failure during the observation time interval are determined on the basis of the calculated service life and the modified distribution function F(t). The emergency modes in the power system subsystem in the event of OHL failures and decommissioning for repair are investigated.