PROBABILISTIC CHARACTERISTICS OF WIND POWER PLANT OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS OF THE AZOV-BLACK SEA REGION OF UKRAINE

• Datum: 2026
• Hauptverfasser: Vasko , P., Mazurenko , I., Sysak , R.
• Format: Artikel
• Sprache: Englisch
• Veröffentlicht: Institute of Renewable Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2026
• Schlagworte: wind power plant; random processes; energy supply; green hydrogen; desalination; power; statistics; fluctuations.
• Online Zugang: https://ve.org.ua/index.php/journal/article/view/635
• Назва журналу: Vidnovluvana energetika

Scaling up hydrogen energy is a strategic priority of the energy policies of Ukraine and the European Union. Using renewable energy sources (RES) to power autonomous technological complexes for green hydrogen production and seawater desalination as a feedstock requires finding effective technical solutions to align the stochastic nature of power generation with the stable energy demand of such facilities. To address this challenge, this study performs a statistical evaluation of parameters characterizing the dynamics of electricity production based on retrospective data from a wind power plant (WPP) located in the Azov-Black Sea region of Ukraine. The research primarily focuses on analyzing the duration of power deficit and surplus intervals caused by the inherent variability of WPP operation. Numerical estimates were obtained for the maximum and average duration of such intervals, their standard deviation, as well as the parameters of exponential and Weibull probability distributions used for their modelling. The results of this study are essential for designing continuous energy supply systems for large-scale autonomous RES-based green hydrogen production and seawater desalination facilities.  Ref. 36, Tab. 2, Fig. 8