Application of scenario approach in development of management decisions (A scenario of ship formation management)

• Date: 2022
• Main Authors: Додонов, О. Г., Путятін, В. Г., Куценко, С. А., Сенченко , В. Р., Додонов, Є. О.
• Format: Article
• Language: Ukrainian
• Published: Інститут проблем реєстрації інформації НАН України 2022
• Subjects: scenarios; scenario approach; Bayesian method; management decision; ship connection; sea-borne troops operation
• Online Access: http://drsp.ipri.kiev.ua/article/view/275024
• Journal Title: Data Recording, Storage & Processing

The study deals with problematic issues related to the use of the principles of system analysis in solving the problems of preparing management decisions. Among the methods of system analysis, it is advisable to utilize the scenario approach, because it allows one to build alternative options for the development of processes. Working with scenarios allows one to develop management decisions, implement them in strategies, quantitatively assess the effectiveness of any decision and the dependence on the sequence of events that may occur after the decision is made. Modern organizational and methodological principles and provisions of the scenario approach are presented on the example of the development and modeling of a scenario for the development of managerial decisions by the control bodies of a Ship group (SG). A SG is an operational formation of ships intended to solve a wide range of tasks, from protecting sea communications and ports to supporting ground forces and protecting coastal facilities from air strikes. The SG is formed as a temporary or permanent formation to perform the assigned operational task. According to the scenario, the SG operates under conditions of intense enemy opposition, territorial distribution of command and control facilities, strict time limits in the use of its forces and means of destruction, as well as means of destruction of the enemy. To calculate probabilistic estimates of the development of scenario options, among many existing methods, the Bayesian method was chosen. The Bayesian network allows you to reflect in the process model causal relationships between various factors (events) of the process and environmental changes and, unlike regression models, allows you to take into account not only the direct dependencies of the risk level on the occurrence of certain events, but also the dependencies between risk factors (conditional probabilities). To simulate the scenario for the development of managerial decisions of the SG, a Modeling complex is used. The complex is a set of mathematical methods (including Bayesian methods and networks), analytical and simulation models, algorithms, hardware and software modules that implement functional subsystems, task complexes and functional tasks of SG control. The modeling results demonstrated that the scenario approach provides the possibility of variability of the tasks worked out on the Modeling complex in order to improve the quality and efficiency of the development, adoption and implementation of management decisions. This problem is of particular relevance for Ukraine now, in the current conditions of armed confrontation.