A review of methods and technologies for scenario analysis of cascading effects

• Дата: 2024
• Автори: Сенченко, В. Р., Бойченко, А. В., Коваль, О. В., Бисько, Р. М., Хоменко, О. М.
• Формат: Стаття
• Мова: Ukrainian
• Опубліковано: Інститут проблем реєстрації інформації НАН України 2024
• Теми: scenario analysis; cascading effect; critical infrastructure; management activity; modeling methods
• Онлайн доступ: http://drsp.ipri.kiev.ua/article/view/308506
• Назва журналу: Data Recording, Storage & Processing

Cascading effects are complex and multidimensional processes that develop in time and space. To study cascading effects that result from various impacts to critical infrastructures is particularly relevant. Using of scenario analysis methods allows to construct and investigate as many possible scenarios as possible to track cascade processes developing. Understanding the ultimate consequences of cascading effects is important for developers of the cross-sectoral critical infrastructure protect strategy. This study presents a systematic analysis of existing methods and technologies for scenario analysis of cascading effects from the point of view of their efficiency specifically for design of critical infrastructure protection models. The researchers tried to cover as widely as possible the most important achievements in this field over the past decades. As a result, ten promising approaches were preferred. In our opinion, the method of cross-impact analysis, interpretive structural modeling, their combination, Delphi method, dynamic modeling, risk analysis methods, network analysis method, agent modeling, modeling of geographic information systems, machine methods deserve special focus. Based on the results of the analysis, a summary table was created. It presents a brief description of each of the considered approaches, technologies and tools for its implementation, advantages compared to other approaches, disadvantages and features of usage. It is presented that computer simulation packages have been implemented for the considered methods, which allow investigating complex scenarios of cascading effects. The knowledge obtained as a result of using considered methods will allow to improve decision making process for critical infrastructures resilience supporting and minimizing of harmful effects and attacks negative consequences. Tabl.: 5. Fig.: 7. Refs: 70 titles.