Modified agent-oriented method for green risks and technologies assessment

• Date: 2025
• Main Authors: Кузнєцова, Н. В., Шевчук, О. С.
• Format: Article
• Language: Ukrainian
• Published: Інститут проблем реєстрації інформації НАН України 2025
• Subjects: аgent-based modelling; risk assessment; green risks; green projects; stochastic process; behavioral strategies
• Online Access: https://drsp.ipri.kiev.ua/article/view/354576
• Journal Title: Data Recording, Storage & Processing

This study explores the modeling, analysis, and assessment of green projects and technologies’ risks. The main distinguishing feature of green projects is their environmental focus, often accompanied by a certain disregard for economic factors. The investigation examines a modified agent-oriented method for the simulation of financial companies’ activities. The simulation is performed at the environment where the utilization of natural resources, in particular CO2 emissions, wastewater, and drinking water consumption, is regulated. Additionally, the simulation environment incorporates a functioning green quota market. Special attention is given to the analysis of various agents’ behavioural strategies. Behavioural strategies determine agents’ goals, as well as decision-making logic and principles during modelling. Four types of behavioural strategies were formulated: «Ignorance», «Adaptive business», «Green policy», and «Green quota trade». Each strategy reflects radically different approaches to economic activity conducted in an environment with natural resources usage regulations. The simulation on energy sector companies’ data usage was conducted with the aim of analysing and comparing the efficiency of proposed strategies. The modelling confirmed that behavioural strategy is a decisive factor with a major influence on a financial company’s future growth and development. Thus, the campaign can successfully adapt to the green quota regime and maintain economic growth in the future, in the case when the effective behavioural strategy is chosen. On the other hand, an inefficient strategy can cause major financial degradation, even with a risk of bankruptcy. Furthermore, the modelling demonstrated that behavioural strategies could have different relative effectiveness at different simulation time horizons. Fig.: 2. Refs: 10 titles.