Оцінювання економічного вимірювання сталого розвитку регіонів україни на основі яскравості нічних вогнів

When assessing the level of development of territories, the problem of finding objective qualitative data that will characterize it arises. One of the possible sources of such data is the remote sensing of the Earth (RSE). The article is devoted to the analysis of the possibility of using the produc...

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Date:2023
Main Authors: Zgurovsky, Michael, Yefremov, Kostiantyn, Gapon, Sergii, Pyshnograiev, Ivan
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Language:English
Published: The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" 2023
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Online Access:https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/285440
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System research and information technologies
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author Zgurovsky, Michael
Yefremov, Kostiantyn
Gapon, Sergii
Pyshnograiev, Ivan
author_facet Zgurovsky, Michael
Yefremov, Kostiantyn
Gapon, Sergii
Pyshnograiev, Ivan
author_sort Zgurovsky, Michael
baseUrl_str http://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/oai
collection OJS
datestamp_date 2023-08-07T15:49:29Z
description When assessing the level of development of territories, the problem of finding objective qualitative data that will characterize it arises. One of the possible sources of such data is the remote sensing of the Earth (RSE). The article is devoted to the analysis of the possibility of using the product of RSE – the map of night lights, for modeling the economical dimension of the sustainable development of the regions of Ukraine. Using the regression and correlation analysis and neural networks, appropriate models for assessing the level of economic development of the Kherson region, Donetsk region, and the AR of Crimea were obtained. The study was carried out by the team of the World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development of the Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute. It was part of research on the analysis of the behavior of complex socio-economic systems and processes of sustainable development in the context of the quality and safety of people’s lives.
doi_str_mv 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2023.2.04
first_indexed 2025-07-17T10:28:17Z
format Article
fulltext  M. Zgurovsky, K. Yefremov, S. Gapon, I. Pyshnograiev, 2023 Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2023, № 2 49 TIДC ПРОБЛЕМИ ПРИЙНЯТТЯ РІШЕНЬ ТА УПРАВЛІННЯ В ЕКОНОМІЧНИХ, ТЕХНІЧНИХ, ЕКОЛОГІЧНИХ І СОЦІАЛЬНИХ СИСТЕМАХ UDC 338.27:311.16 DOI: 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2023.2.04 ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMICAL DIMENSION OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UKRAINE’S REGIONS BASED ON THE BRIGHTNESS OF NIGHT LIGHTS M. ZGUROVSKY, K. YEFREMOV, S. GAPON, I. PYSHNOGRAIEV Abstract. When assessing the level of development of territories, the problem of finding objective qualitative data that will characterize it arises. One of the possible sources of such data is the remote sensing of the Earth (RSE). The article is devoted to the analysis of the possibility of using the product of RSE – the map of night lights, for modeling the economical dimension of the sustainable development of the regions of Ukraine. Using the regression and correlation analysis and neural net- works, appropriate models for assessing the level of economic development of the Kherson region, Donetsk region, and the AR of Crimea were obtained. The study was carried out by the team of the World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sus- tainable Development of the Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute. It was part of research on the analysis of the behavior of complex socio-economic systems and processes of sustainable development in the context of the quality and safety of people’s lives. Keywords: sustainable development, spatial data analysis, economical development, night lights, mathematical modeling. INTRODUCTION The effectiveness and quality of management decisions regarding the behavior of complex socio-economic and security systems depends on the completeness and adequacy of the assessment of the management situation. For the construction of such an estimate, an important factor is the quality of the data used during the study. In this study, a system is understood as a territory that is either an object of management or an environment for a certain management situation. During the assessment of the level of development of territories, the problem of finding ob- jective qualitative data that will characterize it arises. One of the possible sources of such data is the application of remote sensing of the Earth (RSE). The study is devoted to the analysis of the possibility of using one of the products of the RSE — the map of night lights, for modeling the economical di- mension of sustainable development of the regions of Ukraine and other adminis- trative-territorial entities. M. Zgurovsky, K. Yefremov, S. Gapon, I. Pyshnograiev ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2023, № 2 50 The possibilities of using the map of night lights were considered by various scientists. In particular, at the global level, Jiansheng Wu et al. [1] investigated the relationship between GDP and night lights using 15 years of observations. In [2], the authors reviewed the indicators determining Human Well-Being for 2006 and showed the existing relationship with night lights. At the regional level, there were similar studies for the population of Japan [3] and Ukraine [4], the level of urbanization and GRP of the regions of China [5; 6], etc. In a previous study [7], the spatial correlation of indicators of sustainable development and the brightness of night lights according to the data of 2011 was considered. The preservation of zonal trends with the components of the quality and safety of people’s lives, the Index of the economical dimension, the Competi- tiveness Index and the Sustainable Development Index of Ukraine’s regions was confirmed. This study, in contrast to the results of foreign scientists, investigates the possibility of an integral assessment of the level of economic development based on maps of night lights at the regional level in dynamics, and also presents models for determining the level of economic development of the regions of Ukraine for the first time. The study was carried out by the team of the World Data Center for Geoin- formatics and Sustainable Development of the Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute and was part of research on the analysis of the behavior of complex socio-economic systems [8] and sustainable development processes in the context of the quality and safety of people’s lives [9; 10; 11]. METHODOLOGY FOR CALCULATING THE INDEX OF BRIGHTNESS OF NIGHT LIGHTS OF THE UKRAINE’S REGIONS The maps of night lights (Fig. 1) used in the study are the result of data processing by the Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State Univer- sity [12] on artificial illumination of the Earth’s surface at night from the sources of the Earth Observation Group, Colorado School of Mines [13]. Fig. 1. Map of night lights (raster image (composite) of artificial night luminosity of the Earth’s surface) for 2013 Assessment of the economical dimension of sustainable development of the Ukraine’s regions … Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2023, № 2 51 The Night Light Brightness Index was calculated for the territory of Ukraine and each of its regions for the period 2004 — September 2022 (monthly available data is presented for 2022). For this, a vector mask of the borders of countries and regions and their urbanized territories was created on the night luminance maps. Geospatial calculation functions averaged indicators within each urbanized area of each region. The Night Light Brightness Index of an administrative-territorial formation is the sum of the values for the illumination of each cell of the map within the urbanized territories reduced to the area of the administrative-territorial formation: ,, 1 i j ki K kj i S L I i  where i — number of the administrative-territorial formation; j — year of calcula- tion; i jI — the value of the Night Lights Brightness Index; iS — the area of the administrative-territorial formation in km2; iK — the number of cells, the bright- ness of which is counted to the i-th administrative-territorial formation; j kiL , — the brightness of the k-th cell of the i-th administrative-territorial entity for the j-th year, which is measured in the range from 0 to 63. Thus, the regions with the highest values of luminosity in their urbanized ter- ritories received the highest values of the Night Lights Brightness Index, and vice versa, the regions with the lowest values of luminosity in their urbanized territo- ries — the lowest. The method of zonal statistics was used to calculate the sum of the values of the raster cells within the vector masks. The result of calculations of the Night Lights Brightness Index for regions of Ukraine is presented in the Table 1 and in Fig. 2. THE NIGHT LIGHTS BRIGHTNESS INDEX ANALYSIS The Night Lights Brightness Index had a decreasing trend several times: – global economic crises (2006–2009); – annexation of territories of Ukraine in 2014; – the pandemic of COVID-19; – the Russia’s invasion on the territory of Ukraine in 2022. Fig. 2. Evaluation of the brightness of the urbanized territories of the regions of Ukraine from 2004 to September 2022 (monthly available data is presented for 2022) M. Zgurovsky, K. Yefremov, S. Gapon, I. Pyshnograiev ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2023, № 2 52 R eg io n c 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 20 21 2 02 2/ 1 20 22 /2 20 22 /3 2 02 2/ 8 20 22 /9 A R o f C ri m ea 5. 15 5. 41 4. 78 5. 99 6. 16 6. 88 5. 74 4. 60 3. 87 4. 22 4. 90 6. 01 5. 46 5. 22 7. 40 7. 44 5. 73 4. 31 3. 33 4. 14 C he rk as y 5. 66 5. 85 5. 51 7. 57 7. 45 8. 66 7. 08 4. 96 3. 92 4. 51 4. 95 7. 02 5. 31 4. 84 7. 65 6. 92 4. 68 2. 66 1. 96 2. 55 C he rn ih iv 6. 94 7. 36 6. 97 8. 87 9. 12 9. 90 8. 18 6. 69 5. 43 6. 08 6. 65 8. 65 7. 14 6. 52 9. 36 8. 67 5. 35 2. 57 1. 89 2. 97 C he rn iv ts i 4. 15 4. 56 4. 83 5. 73 5. 64 6. 46 5. 43 3. 14 2. 30 2. 96 2. 96 4. 51 3. 55 3. 04 4. 40 3. 64 2. 80 1. 38 1. 12 1. 39 ci ty S ev as to po l 10 .5 5 10 .7 8 10 .1 6 11 .3 9 12 .0 7 13 .1 3 11 .8 1 10 .9 7 10 .3 0 10 .5 1 11 .3 8 12 .9 3 11 .9 7 11 .5 5 13 .9 2 25 .5 2 27 .3 7 20 .6 3 16 .9 1 18 .2 8 D ni pr op et ro vs k 13 .8 8 14 .6 1 13 .4 8 16 .0 7 17 .2 3 18 .1 4 15 .2 4 12 .7 1 10 .6 3 11 .6 1 13 .0 4 16 .7 0 13 .7 7 12 .9 5 18 .2 2 17 .9 9 12 .1 6 5. 02 3. 91 5. 20 D on et sk 12 .9 3 13 .9 0 12 .7 6 15 .0 9 15 .8 6 17 .4 2 14 .2 6 12 .0 7 9. 42 10 .3 9 11 .9 8 14 .8 6 12 .3 4 11 .7 4 15 .9 3 16 .3 4 9. 26 5. 68 4. 51 5. 64 Iv an o- F ra nk iv sk 4. 74 5. 36 5. 68 6. 93 6. 28 7. 69 6. 06 3. 53 2. 81 3. 32 3. 39 5. 25 4. 03 3. 65 5. 70 5. 76 3. 83 1. 83 1. 21 1. 79 K ha rk iv 10 .2 5 10 .6 0 10 .4 0 12 .3 8 12 .9 7 14 .2 6 11 .6 4 8. 75 7. 44 7. 96 9. 17 12 .3 7 9. 40 8. 64 13 .3 8 15 .0 0 8. 74 4. 35 3. 01 4. 71 K he rs on 6. 87 7. 27 6. 49 7. 97 8. 46 8. 95 7. 57 6. 34 5. 45 5. 83 6. 49 8. 11 6. 88 6. 55 8. 93 8. 99 5. 54 2. 53 2. 09 2. 89 K hm el ny ts ki y 6. 39 6. 69 6. 40 8. 87 8. 91 10 .1 9 8. 43 5. 91 4. 81 5. 45 6. 00 8. 55 6. 58 5. 95 9. 27 8. 28 5. 88 3. 25 2. 41 3. 10 K ir ov oh ra d 9. 68 9. 99 9. 19 11 .5 1 11 .9 7 13 .4 6 11 .0 0 8. 77 7. 25 8. 05 9. 00 11 .6 3 9. 39 8. 75 12 .9 3 12 .6 7 7. 85 3. 74 2. 93 4. 19 K yi v 7. 02 7. 34 7. 03 9. 67 9. 60 11 .2 4 9. 33 7. 11 5. 75 6. 64 7. 10 10 .0 0 7. 88 7. 10 10 .8 2 10 .3 8 7. 54 3. 11 2. 27 4. 50 K yi v ci ty 77 .6 2 76 .1 7 72 .7 2 84 .4 9 84 .4 1 91 .1 0 85 .6 3 86 .3 5 79 .1 7 85 .3 3 84 .1 6 96 .8 3 91 .2 2 87 .6 2 97 .8 4 12 7. 43 1 10 .0 1 41 .5 9 36 .0 5 35 .6 5 L uh an sk 7. 46 8. 05 7. 48 8. 78 9. 05 9. 91 8. 13 6. 68 5. 09 5. 80 6. 61 8. 30 6. 71 6. 45 8. 83 8. 61 4. 77 3. 45 2. 25 2. 90 L vi v 5. 77 6. 32 6. 19 8. 16 7. 89 8. 75 7. 23 5. 84 4. 78 5. 69 5. 77 7. 86 6. 59 5. 72 8. 42 7. 90 5. 08 3. 02 2. 20 2. 64 M yk ol ay iv 8. 24 8. 49 7. 91 9. 98 10 .5 3 11 .5 8 9. 46 7. 28 6. 03 6. 57 7. 52 9. 97 7. 87 7. 33 11 .1 5 11 .7 2 7. 50 4. 02 3. 12 4. 23 O de sa 6. 74 6. 85 6. 46 8. 17 8. 62 9. 52 7. 91 5. 86 4. 92 5. 28 6. 01 8. 20 6. 55 6. 13 9. 09 10 .0 3 6. 72 3. 53 2. 84 3. 97 P ol ta va 7. 51 7. 66 7. 75 9. 81 9. 92 11 .2 2 9. 09 6. 65 5. 57 6. 16 6. 82 9. 41 7. 43 6. 58 10 .4 5 8. 87 6. 63 3. 25 2. 42 3. 13 R iv ne 4. 21 4. 41 4. 02 5. 88 5. 80 6. 89 5. 48 3. 87 2. 99 3. 64 3. 83 5. 90 4. 40 3. 97 6. 31 5. 51 3. 90 2. 21 1. 63 2. 14 S um y 7. 04 7. 28 7. 33 9. 12 9. 20 10 .3 9 8. 37 6. 33 5. 23 5. 76 6. 38 8. 75 6. 88 6. 25 9. 70 11 .2 0 6. 79 3. 20 2. 36 4. 87 T er no py l 4. 97 5. 33 5. 35 7. 11 7. 06 8. 43 6. 74 4. 36 3. 44 4. 11 4. 33 6. 56 4. 91 4. 40 7. 05 6. 20 4. 23 2. 26 1. 66 2. 25 V in ny ts ya 6. 58 6. 81 6. 53 8. 70 8. 68 10 .2 3 8. 36 5. 98 4. 74 5. 39 5. 95 8. 50 6. 47 5. 81 9. 26 8. 84 6. 52 3. 51 2. 40 3. 34 V ol yn 3. 89 4. 15 3. 80 5. 50 5. 36 6. 16 5. 00 3. 58 2. 83 3. 45 3. 63 5. 26 4. 20 3. 78 5. 85 5. 24 3. 51 2. 07 1. 55 1. 94 Z ak ar pa tt ya 3. 60 3. 95 3. 92 4. 55 4. 72 5. 32 4. 41 3. 06 2. 53 3. 13 3. 22 4. 09 3. 72 3. 24 4. 66 4. 84 3. 64 2. 33 1. 82 1. 93 Z ap or iz hz hy a 9. 19 9. 75 8. 75 10 .7 3 11 .4 7 12 .1 4 10 .1 2 8. 52 7. 17 7. 84 8. 62 10 .9 7 9. 08 8. 66 12 .0 2 11 .2 3 6. 93 3. 56 2. 92 3. 92 Z hy to m yr 5. 27 5. 41 5. 15 7. 04 7. 11 8. 39 6. 65 4. 89 3. 95 4. 53 4. 94 7. 20 5. 36 4. 94 7. 76 8. 13 5. 41 2. 50 1. 79 2. 90 T a b le 1 . E va lu at io n of th e br ig ht ne ss o f th e ur ba ni ze d te rr ito ri es o f th e re gi on s of U kr ai ne f ro m 2 00 7 to 2 02 2* * M on th ly a va il ab le d at a is p re se nt ed f or 2 02 2 Assessment of the economical dimension of sustainable development of the Ukraine’s regions … Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2023, № 2 53 The Night Lights Brightness Index for the territory of Ukraine in 2018 (Fig. 3) grew by 64% compared to 2015 and amounted to 9.225 and 5.599, re- spectively. In 2021, the historical maximum of the index for the studied period was observed and amounted to 10.083. The minimum is 2.577 in August 2022 which was reached due to consequences of the Russia’s military actions. Only in four regions (Kyiv city, Sevastopol city, Kherson and Kyiv regions) the brightness of night lights was the lowest in 2009 as a result of the global eco- nomic crisis, and in all other regions — in 2015 (if we excluded 2022). In Kyiv city, unlike other regions, had a growing trend till January 2022. The dynamics of the brightness index is shown in Fig. 4, 5. Let’s consider Donetsk and Luhansk regions. In 2015, the value of the Night Lights Brightness Index was affected greatly (Fig. 2). Fig. 6 shows the change in the intensity of night lights between 2013 and 2015 in the territory of these re- gions. Places of decrease in intensity are marked in dark grey on the map, and places of increase are marked in light grey. As can be seen from the figure, a de- crease in the indicator is observed in most of the territories of the regions, which also indicates a decrease in economic activity. Fig. 3. Map of night lights (raster image (composite) of artificial night luminosity of the Earth’s surface) of the regions of Ukraine for 2015 Fig. 4. Evaluation of the brightness of the territory of the Kyiv city from 2005 to 2018 M. Zgurovsky, K. Yefremov, S. Gapon, I. Pyshnograiev ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2023, № 2 54 As for August 2022, the most affected regions are Kharkiv, Sumy, Ivano- Frankivsk, Dnipropetrovsk. The decreasing was 78–80%. The less one is Sevas- topol city (33%). It should be noted here that along with the unconditional impact of Russian aggression, this month is accompanied by a seasonal decrease in eco- nomic activity. In order to verify the possibility of using night lights maps to assess the level of economic development of territories, a correlation-regression analysis of the Index of the economical dimension of sustainable development — an integral in- dicator calculated according to the methodology [9], and the Night Lights Bright- ness Index for the regions of Ukraine was conducted. In the Table 2 the results of calculating the correlation coefficient of the studied indicators for each region are shown. The obtained results indicate that the relationship between economic development and the brightness of night lights is uneven for different regions of the country. The value of the correlation coeffi- cient for the Kyiv city stands out from a number of data due to the specifics of the functioning of the capital. If we consider the entire data set (except for the Kyiv city), the correlation coefficient for the Index of the economical dimension of sus- tainable development and the Night Lights Brightness Index is 0.716 (Fig. 7), which indicates the presence of a connection. Fig. 5. Comparison of the brightness of the territory of the Kyiv city in 2005 and 2018. 2005 2018 Fig. 6. Changes in the intensity of night lights between 2013 and 2015 in Donetsk and Luhansk regions Assessment of the economical dimension of sustainable development of the Ukraine’s regions … Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2023, № 2 55 T a b l e 2 . Correlation coefficients of the Index of the economical dimension of sus- tainable development of the regions of Ukraine and the level of brightness of night lights Region Correlation coefficient AR of Crimea 0.744 city Sevastopol 0.732 Donetsk 0.721 Odesa 0.689 Poltava 0.660 Luhansk 0.636 Ivano-Frankivsk 0.616 Zhytomyr 0.605 Dnipropetrovsk 0.590 Kherson 0.563 Khmelnytskiy 0.530 Cherkasy 0.519 Rivne 0.478 Kharkiv 0.476 Ternopyl 0.464 Kirovohrad 0.457 Vinnytsya 0.432 Mykolayiv 0.397 Chernihiv 0.390 Chernivtsi 0.355 Volyn 0.279 Zaporizhzhya 0.267 Zakarpattya 0.252 Sumy 0.235 Kyiv 0.000 Lviv -0.028 Kyiv city -0.227 The presence of such a connection allows building models for assessing the level of the economic component of sustainable development based on satellite data for territories in the absence of the necessary statistical information. Fig. 7. Dependence of the Index of the economical dimension of sustainable development of the regions of Ukraine and the level of brightness of night lights M. Zgurovsky, K. Yefremov, S. Gapon, I. Pyshnograiev ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2023, № 2 56 ASSESSMENT OF THE LEVEL OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE KHERSON REGION AND THE AUTONOMOUS REPUBLIC OF CRIMEA BASED ON THE NIGHT LIGHTS BRIGHTNESS INDEX Three regions were selected for modeling: – Kherson region (to check the methodology of building models); – Autonomous Republic of Crimea (due to the absence of the objective sta- tistical information since 2014); – Donetsk region (due to the absence of the objective statistical information since 2014). After the analysis of the relevant time series, the presence of a lag in 1 pe- riod was determined. The models are built in the form of nonlinear regression [14] and neural network [15] and have the following form: 1. Regressions: a. Kherson region 00551,0))1((*0763,0)(  tIlntI nlec , where )(tIec . — Index of the economical dimension of sustainable development at a moment in time t, )1( tInl . — the Night Lights Brightness Index at a mo- ment in time 1t ; b. AR of Crimea 2856,0))1((*30658,0)(  tILNtII nlnlec , where )(tIec — Index of the economical dimension of sustainable development at a mo- ment in time t, )1( tInl — the Night Lights Brightness Index at a moment in time 1t . c. Donetsk region 0489917756,2)1(*0019647232,0)(  tItI nlec , c Fig. 8. Weights and structure of CNN for the: a — Kherson region; b — AR of Crimea; c — Donetsk region (Iec — Index of the economical dimension of sustainable development at a moment in time t, Lights — the Night Lights Brightness Index at a moment in time (t–1) ba Assessment of the economical dimension of sustainable development of the Ukraine’s regions … Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2023, № 2 57 where )(tIec — Index of the economical dimension of sustainable development at a mo- ment in time t, )1( tInl — the Night Lights Brightness Index at a moment in time 1t . 2. Convolutional Neural Network (CNN): a. The weights and structure of the CNN for the Kherson region are pre- sented in Fig. 8, a; b. The weights and structure of the CNN for AR of Crimea are presented in Fig. 8, b; c. The weights and structure of the CNN for the Donetsk region are pre- sented in Fig. 8, c; The model for the Kherson region has an average relative error of 7,6% for nonlinear regression and 6.4% for convolutional neural network. The results are presented in Fig. 9 and in Table 3. According to the built model, in 2021 the re- gion showed growth and fall in 2022. T a b l e 3 . Calculation of the Index of the economical dimension based on the brightness of night lights for the Kherson region Year The Index of the economical dimension The Night Lights Brightness Index The values of the Index of the economical dimension are modeled using non-linear regression The values of the Index of the economical dimension are modeled using CNN 2009 0.162 6.487 0.157 0.164 2010 0.164 7.966 0.148 0.144 2011 0.178 8.455 0.164 0.168 2012 0.163 8.950 0.168 0.168 2013 0.155 7.570 0.173 0.167 2014 0.190 6.338 0.160 0.167 2015 0.136 5.447 0.146 0.141 2016 0.131 5.832 0.135 0.133 2017 0.133 6.490 0.140 0.137 2018 0.137 8.109 0.148 0.144 2019 6.883 0.165 0.168 2020 6.549 0.153 0.154 2021 8.930 0.149 0.145 01.2022 8.991 0.173 0.167 02.2022 5.542 0.173 0.167 03.2022 2.535 0.136 0.134 08.2022 2.094 0.076 0.124 09.2022 2.893 0.062 0.126 10.2022 0.087 0.122 Fig. 9. Calculation of the Index of the economical dimension based on the brightness of night lights for the Kherson region M. Zgurovsky, K. Yefremov, S. Gapon, I. Pyshnograiev ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2023, № 2 58 The model for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea can be used to assess the level of economic development of the region after 2013. The average relative er- ror of the obtained models is no more than 10.2%. The results are presented in Fig. 10 and in Table 4. T a b l e 4 . Calculation of the Index of the economical dimension based on the brightness of night lights for AR of Crimea Year The Index of the economical dimension The Night Lights Brightness Index The values of the Index of the economical dimension are modeled using non-linear regression The values of the Index of the economical dimension are modeled using CNN 2009 0.216 4.778 0.194 0.192 2010 0.223 5.994 0.263 0.266 2011 0.301 6.161 0.272 0.273 2012 0.282 6.879 0.306 0.296 2013 0.320 5.739 0.250 0.254 2014 4.600 0.182 0.178 2015 3.872 0.129 0.124 2016 4.224 0.156 0.150 2017 4.900 0.202 0.201 2018 6.011 0.264 0.267 2019 5.461 0.235 0.238 2020 5.216 0.221 0.222 2021 7.398 0.328 0.305 01.2022 7.439 0.330 0.305 02.2022 5.731 0.250 0.253 03.2022 4.311 0.162 0.157 08.2022 3.335 0.084 0.089 09.2022 4.139 0.150 0.144 10.2022 4.778 0.194 0.192 According to the simulation results, after a certain economic growth in 2011–2013, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea fell in 2014–2016. In 2016–2021, there is an upward trend in the Index of the economical dimension of sustainable development. Fig. 10. Calculation of the Index of the economical dimension based on the brightness of night lights for AR of Crimea Assessment of the economical dimension of sustainable development of the Ukraine’s regions … Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2023, № 2 59 The model for the Donetsk region has an average relative error of 19.4% for nonlinear regression and 18.2% for convolutional neural network. This is due to increased uncertainty in partial annexation and hostilities. The results are pre- sented in Fig. 11 and in Table 5. According to the built model, the region has de- creasing economic dimension trend after 2013 and after 2018. The models show even greater level of falling during 2022. T a b l e 5 . Calculation of the Index of the economical dimension based on the brightness of night lights for the Donetsk region Year The Index of the economical dimension The Night Lights Brightness Index The values of the Index of the economical dimension are modeled using non-linear regression The values of the Index of the economical dimension are modeled using CNN 2009 0.503 12.762 0.432 0.495 2010 0.468 15.090 0.363 0.375 2011 0.517 15.862 0.511 0.558 2012 0.554 17.416 0.566 0.561 2013 0.482 14.255 0.685 0.520 2014 12.071 0.455 0.522 2015 9.425 0.323 0.305 2016 10.390 0.195 0.214 2017 11.977 0.238 0.222 2018 14.864 0.318 0.297 2019 12.337 0.495 0.552 2020 11.736 0.338 0.330 2021 15.934 0.305 0.279 01.2022 16.338 0.571 0.560 02.2022 9.257 0.601 0.553 03.2022 5.683 0.188 0.214 08.2022 4.510 0.069 0.238 09.2022 5.639 0.043 0.247 10.2022 0.068 0.239 Fig. 11. Calculation of the Index of the economical dimension based on the brightness of night lights for the Donetsk region M. Zgurovsky, K. Yefremov, S. Gapon, I. Pyshnograiev ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2023, № 2 60 CONCLUSIONS In the course of the research, data on the luminosity of night lights on the territory of Ukraine was collected and processed. Based on the processed data, the Night Lights Brightness Index for the regions of Ukraine was formed and analyzed. The conducted correlation-regression analysis confirmed the possibility of using the specified index to determine the economic component of sustainable development on the territory of Ukraine. Built for the Kherson region, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the Donetsk region, the assessment models of Index of the economical dimension of sustainable development showed an error of no more than 7.6%, 10.2% and 19.4%, which, among other things, allowed us to assess the level of economic development for the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the Do- netsk region for 2014–2022. Using developed approach, we showed that the annexation of territories sig- nificantly affected the level of economic development of the territories of Crimea and Donbas. So, the Crimea fell by 0.174 points (57.8%), and the Donetsk region lost almost twice as much – 0.398 points (66.1%). At the same time, the pandemic period affected these regions in different ways. Crimea, after the restoration of its economic processes, lost only 0.044 points (16.6%), while the Donetsk region lost 0.232 points (44.3%). And without having time to strengthen the trend towards economic recovery from the consequences of Covid-19, due to the full-scale invasion, these regions also suffered significantly. Not being a highly developed region, by the third dec- ade of 2022 Crimea lowered its level of economic development by 0.230 points, when the Donetsk region lost much more – 0.432 points. Thus, according to the results of the study, it was established that the degree of brightness of night lights can be used to assess the economic component of sus- tainable development of the regions of Ukraine, and in particular, the level of economic activity of the territories. This will help to make an assessment in the absence of ready-made qualitative statistical information, for example, for newly formed administrative units, or for regions for which, for various reasons, it is impossible to obtain sets of economic indicators. Generally, with the application of the proposed approach, it was possible to identify and confirm the decrease in the economic activity of the regions of Ukraine during the pandemic and a full-scale invasion of Russia. Further research is planned to be directed to the creation of a set of models for assessing the level of economic development of any territory within Ukraine with the aim of creating appropriate applications within the Information and Ana- lytical Situational Center of the Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute. REFERENCES 1. Jiansheng Wu, Zheng Wang, Weifeng Li, and Jian Peng, “Exploring factors affect- ing the relationship between light consumption and GDP based on DMSP/OLS nighttime satellite imagery,” Remote Sensing of Environment, vol. 134, pp. 111–119, 2013. Available: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2013.03.001. Assessment of the economical dimension of sustainable development of the Ukraine’s regions … Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2023, № 2 61 2. T. Ghosh, S.J. Anderson, C.D. Elvidge, and P.C. Sutton, “Using Nighttime Satellite Imagery as a Proxy Measure of Human Well-Being,” Sustainability, 5(12), pp. 4988–5019, 2013. 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Gapon, I. Pyshnograiev ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2023, № 2 62 INFORMATION ON THE ARTICLE Michael Z. Zgurovsky, ORCID: 0000-0001-5896-7466, National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail: zgu- rovsm@hotmail.com Kostiantyn V. Yefremov, ORCID: 0000-0003-3495-6417, National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail: k.yefremov@wdc.org.ua Sergii V. Gapon, ORCID: 0000-0002-8834-5825, National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail: gapon@wdc.org.ua Ivan O. Pyshnograiev, ORCID: 0000-0002-3346-8318, National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail: pyshno- graiev@gmail.com ОЦІНЮВАННЯ ЕКОНОМІЧНОГО ВИМІРЮВАННЯ СТАЛОГО РОЗВИТКУ РЕГІОНІВ УКРАЇНИ НА ОСНОВІ ЯСКРАВОСТІ НІЧНИХ ВОГНІВ / М.З. Згуровський, К.В. Єфремов, С.В. Гапон, І.О. Пишнограєв Анотація. Під час оцінювання рівня розвитку територій виникає проблема пошуку об’єктивних якісних даних, що будуть її характеризувати. Одним з можливих джерел таких даних є застосування методів дистанційного зонду- вання Землі (ДЗЗ). Проаналізовано можливості використання одного з продуктів ДЗЗ – карти нічних вогнів, для моделювання економічного вимірювання сталого розвитку регіонів України. У результаті за допомогою регресійно-кореляційного аналізу та нейронних мереж отримано відповідні моделі оцінювання рівня економічного розвитку Херсонської області, Донецької області та АР Крим. Наведене дослідження виконано командою Світового центру даних «Геоінформатика та сталий розвиток» КПІ ім. Ігоря Сікорського і є частиною досліджень з аналізу поведінки складних соціально- економічних систем та процесів сталого розвитку в контексті якості та безпеки життя людей. Ключові слова: сталий розвиток, просторовий аналіз даних, економічний роз- виток, нічні вогні, математичне моделювання.
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spelling journaliasakpiua-article-2854402023-08-07T15:49:29Z Assessment of the economical dimension of sustainable development of the ukraine’s regions based on the brightness of night lights Оцінювання економічного вимірювання сталого розвитку регіонів україни на основі яскравості нічних вогнів Zgurovsky, Michael Yefremov, Kostiantyn Gapon, Sergii Pyshnograiev, Ivan sustainable development spatial data analysis economical development night lights mathematical modeling сталий розвиток просторовий аналіз даних економічний розвиток нічні вогні математичне моделювання When assessing the level of development of territories, the problem of finding objective qualitative data that will characterize it arises. One of the possible sources of such data is the remote sensing of the Earth (RSE). The article is devoted to the analysis of the possibility of using the product of RSE – the map of night lights, for modeling the economical dimension of the sustainable development of the regions of Ukraine. Using the regression and correlation analysis and neural networks, appropriate models for assessing the level of economic development of the Kherson region, Donetsk region, and the AR of Crimea were obtained. The study was carried out by the team of the World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development of the Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute. It was part of research on the analysis of the behavior of complex socio-economic systems and processes of sustainable development in the context of the quality and safety of people’s lives. Під час оцінювання рівня розвитку територій виникає проблема пошуку об’єктивних якісних даних, що будуть її характеризувати. Одним з можливих джерел таких даних є застосування методів дистанційного зондування Землі (ДЗЗ). Проаналізовано можливості використання одного з продуктів ДЗЗ – карти нічних вогнів, для моделювання економічного вимірювання сталого розвитку регіонів України. У результаті за допомогою регресійно-кореляційного аналізу та нейронних мереж отримано відповідні моделі оцінювання рівня економічного розвитку Херсонської області, Донецької області та АР Крим. Наведене дослідження виконано командою Світового центру даних "Геоінформатика та сталий розвиток" КПІ ім. Ігоря Сікорського і є частиною досліджень з аналізу поведінки складних соціально-економічних систем та процесів сталого розвитку в контексті якості та безпеки життя людей. The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" 2023-06-30 Article Article application/pdf https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/285440 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2023.2.04 System research and information technologies; No. 2 (2023); 49-62 Системные исследования и информационные технологии; № 2 (2023); 49-62 Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології; № 2 (2023); 49-62 2308-8893 1681-6048 en https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/285440/279550
spellingShingle сталий розвиток
просторовий аналіз даних
економічний розвиток
нічні вогні
математичне моделювання
Zgurovsky, Michael
Yefremov, Kostiantyn
Gapon, Sergii
Pyshnograiev, Ivan
Оцінювання економічного вимірювання сталого розвитку регіонів україни на основі яскравості нічних вогнів
title Оцінювання економічного вимірювання сталого розвитку регіонів україни на основі яскравості нічних вогнів
title_alt Assessment of the economical dimension of sustainable development of the ukraine’s regions based on the brightness of night lights
title_full Оцінювання економічного вимірювання сталого розвитку регіонів україни на основі яскравості нічних вогнів
title_fullStr Оцінювання економічного вимірювання сталого розвитку регіонів україни на основі яскравості нічних вогнів
title_full_unstemmed Оцінювання економічного вимірювання сталого розвитку регіонів україни на основі яскравості нічних вогнів
title_short Оцінювання економічного вимірювання сталого розвитку регіонів україни на основі яскравості нічних вогнів
title_sort оцінювання економічного вимірювання сталого розвитку регіонів україни на основі яскравості нічних вогнів
topic сталий розвиток
просторовий аналіз даних
економічний розвиток
нічні вогні
математичне моделювання
topic_facet sustainable development
spatial data analysis
economical development
night lights
mathematical modeling
сталий розвиток
просторовий аналіз даних
економічний розвиток
нічні вогні
математичне моделювання
url https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/285440
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