Короткострокове прогнозування основних показників епідемії в Україні на основі моделі сезонних циклів
The authors of this study propose a method of short-term forecasting of time series of the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic, which has a pronounced seasonality. This method, which has no direct analogies, provides the decomposition of a general forecasting task into several simpler tasks, su...
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| Date: | 2024 |
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute"
2024
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/322459 |
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| Journal Title: | System research and information technologies |
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System research and information technologies| Summary: | The authors of this study propose a method of short-term forecasting of time series of the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic, which has a pronounced seasonality. This method, which has no direct analogies, provides the decomposition of a general forecasting task into several simpler tasks, such as the tasks of building a model of the seasonal cycle of a time series, aggregating the original time series, taking into account the duration of the seasonal cycle, forecasting an aggregated time series, developing an aggregated forecast into a forecast in the original time scale, using the seasonal cycle model. The solution for each task allows the usage of relatively simple methods of mathematical statistics. The article provides a formally rigorous description of all procedures of the method and illustrations of their numerical implementation on the example of a real forecasting task. The use of this method for short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine has systematically demonstrated its effectiveness. |
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