About scientific basis of shortterm earthquake prediction
Critical review of existing methods of shortterm earthquake prediction and some results of mathematical modeling of the processes of fracturing in lithosphere is developed. General scientific methodology of shortterm prediction is formulated including five necessary and two sufficient conditions inc...
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| Datum: | 2013 |
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| Hauptverfasser: | , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | Russisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
S. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the NAS of Ukraine
2013
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| Online Zugang: | https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/111319 |
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| Назва журналу: | Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal |
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Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal| Zusammenfassung: | Critical review of existing methods of shortterm earthquake prediction and some results of mathematical modeling of the processes of fracturing in lithosphere is developed. General scientific methodology of shortterm prediction is formulated including five necessary and two sufficient conditions increasing probability of the forecast of seismic event according to the authors1 opinion. Vital necessity is underlined of immediate creation of areal complex observation net for geophysical monitoring of the focus of imminent destructive earthquake as well as artificial intellect to implement rank recognition of seismic situation in automatic regime. Attention is paid to making demands to computing instruments for equipping observation net (clusters of powerful computers). Conclusion is made on the necessity of creation of special federal Program, with a task of producing the system of shortterm prediction of the earthquakes. |
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