Estimated monthly amounts of direct and total solar radiation in Ukraine during global warming of the early XXI century

• Дата: 2025
• Автори: Martazinova, V.F., Kykhtenko, Y.V., Shpyg, V.M.
• Формат: Стаття
• Мова: Українська
• Опубліковано: S. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the NAS of Ukraine 2025
• Теми: direct solar radiation; total solar radiation; general atmospheric circulation; regional atmospheric circulation; global warming; anticyclonic synoptic situation; 21st century
• Онлайн доступ: https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/321745
• Назва журналу: Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal

In this article, the results of the estimation of total and direct solar radiation in the summer season over the territory of Ukraine depending on changes in planetary and regional atmospheric circulation since the beginning of the 21st century are presented. The estimation was conducted for the period from 1991 to 2020 based on the ERA5 reanalysis data, which is currently considered one of the best and most widely used models. General trends in the increase in the values of total and direct solar radiation over the territory of Ukraine have been established. The detected increase has been occurring since 2001, which corresponds to the time of display of a new regional atmospheric circulation. The amounts of direct and total solar radiation increased on average by 100—150 MJ/m2 in the second decade of the 21st century compared to the last decade of the 20th century. There is a synchronous change in total and direct solar radiation. Analysis of individual summer months revealed that the lowest values of direct solar radiation over the territory of Ukraine were observed in 2001 and the highest in 2019. At the same time, the difference in monthly sums between these years was 150—170 MJ/m2. In July, the lowest values of direct solar radiation were observed in 1997, and the highest values in 2012. The difference in monthly sums is close to the values of June. In August, the lowest values of direct solar radiation were observed in 1997 and the highest in 2015 and 2018. The difference between the sums per month for these years is close to the values of the previous summer months. In August, although the increase in total and direct solar radiation persists, as in June and July, their values for this month are already lower than those of the two previous months. In general, the increase in direct solar radiation over the territory of Ukraine is determined by new features of the course of synoptic processes with a stable anticyclonic character, which cause cloudless or partly cloudy, hot weather without precipitation.