ПОРІВНЯЛЬНИЙ АНАЛІЗ ДВОХ ПІДХОДІВ ДО ВИРІШЕННЯ ЗАДАЧІ КОРОТКОСТРОКОВОГО ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ СУМАРНОГО ЕЛЕКТРИЧНОГО НАВАНТАЖЕННЯ ЕЛЕКТРОЕНЕРГЕТИЧНОЇ СИСТЕМИ
This paper deals with the solution of the problem of short-term forecasting of the power system active load (PSAL) in two ways. First, to build a mathematical model using parametric method of analysis and prediction of non-stationary time series. The second - the neuro-fuzzy network. The additive ma...
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| Date: | 2013 |
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Ukrainian |
| Published: |
Інститут електродинаміки НАН України, Київ
2013
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://techned.org.ua/index.php/techned/article/view/1165 |
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| Journal Title: | Technical Electrodynamics |
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Technical Electrodynamics| Summary: | This paper deals with the solution of the problem of short-term forecasting of the power system active load (PSAL) in two ways. First, to build a mathematical model using parametric method of analysis and prediction of non-stationary time series. The second - the neuro-fuzzy network. The additive mathematical model of PSAL, algorithms of modelling and prediction of its components are presented. The architecture of the neuro-fuzzy network and learning algorithm are described. With the purpose of adequate comparing of results, using the same informations, the forecasting of PSAL for a week are performed. The advantages of hierarchical problem solving short-term forecasting electrical load of united power systems with using the mathematical models load of regional power systems are demonstrated. The ways of further improving of the accuracy and reliability results of the short-term forecasting of PSAL are formulated. References 15, tables 4, figures 9. |
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