Прогнозування попиту на електричну енергію за допомогою методу UP-DOWN
The article deals with the issue of electricity demand forecasting as a complex, multi-step and iterative process. The process realization requires solving the wide range of social, economic and science-technical problems. The UP-DOWN method has been studied to solve the task of electricity demand f...
Збережено в:
| Дата: | 2013 |
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| Автор: | |
| Формат: | Стаття |
| Мова: | Ukrainian |
| Опубліковано: |
General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
2013
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| Теми: | |
| Онлайн доступ: | https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/495 |
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| Назва журналу: | System Research in Energy |
Репозитарії
System Research in Energy| Резюме: | The article deals with the issue of electricity demand forecasting as a complex, multi-step and iterative process. The process realization requires solving the wide range of social, economic and science-technical problems. The UP-DOWN method has been studied to solve the task of electricity demand forecasting in Ukraine. The general description of UP-DOWN method, presupposing electricity demand forecasting at the UP macro-level and the sectoral DOWN level as well as the peculiarities of its application. The impact factors, which can have influence on electricity demand and must be considered during calculations, were described.The results of calculations of electricity demand up to 2030, obtained using UP-DOWN method, were described. The calculations were also compared with the baseline scenario of updated Energy Strategy of Ukraine up to 2030 and the pessimistic scenario of the previous version of Energy Strategy of Ukraine up to 2030. |
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