Використання траєкторій змін вхідних даних у детерміновано-стохастичних моделях життєвого циклу

• Datum: 2014
• 1. Verfasser: Shulzhenko S.V.
• Format: Artikel
• Sprache: Ukrainian
• Veröffentlicht: General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2014
• Schlagworte: електроенергія; технологія; собівартість; математична модель.
• Online Zugang: https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/508
• Назва журналу: System Research in Energy

Application of optimization models is the most widespread and globally accepted method to solve the task of formation of an advanced structure of a national power system’s generating capacities. The models usually assume a power plant’s operation within UPS to be effective if the corresponding plant capacity is included into the optimal solution plan of the model. The optimality criterion of such mathematical programming dynamic models is usually formed using two components of production cost. The first component includes fixed costs, while the second one consists of variable costs, arising from the power plant’s participation in covering the electricity capacity of the whole power system’s electricity loading curve. The second component’s costs vary with amounts of the produced electricity.The article analyzes the influence of input factors changing dynamics upon the results of application of deterministic and stochastic life-cycle models for estimation of technical and economical indicators of electricity generating technologies, particularly the electricity production costs. As production cost indicators are included into optimization criteria of a national power system’s generating capacities structure’s development forecasting, which is sensitive for these indicators, it is important to consider both the ranges of the input data and the curves of the data changing.