Експертні методи оцінювання в задачах визначення ризиків інтеграції відновлюваних джерел енергії

• Дата: 2025
• Автори: Zamulko, Anatolii, Stepanenko, Vitalii
• Формат: Стаття
• Мова: Ukrainian
• Опубліковано: General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2025
• Теми: експертні методи оцінювання; оцінка ризиків; відновлювані джерела енергії; прийняття рішень.
• Онлайн доступ: https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/896
• Назва журналу: System Research in Energy

The article investigates the use of expert evaluation methods in the tasks of determining the risks of integrating renewable energy sources (RES). The relevance of the work lies in the fact that the connection of RES to distribution networks with stochastic characteristics of their operation significantly affects the modes of operation of the electric grid. As a result, the parameters of electricity supplied to consumers do not meet the parameters established by the standard. The purpose of the article is to study the possibilities of using expert assessments in the tasks of determining the risks of RES integration to predict the possible negative consequences of the impact of RES facilities on the modes of the distribution network. The research methodology is based on the use of experts' knowledge and experience to solve complex or insufficiently formalized problems when objective data is absent or insufficient. As a result of studying the methods of risk analysis of complex systems, it has been found that the use of the expert assessment method makes it possible to focus on the key parameters that determine the overall stability and efficiency of the system under conditions of high uncertainty. In order to achieve the tasks set out in this paper, an expert group was formed, a procedure and a questionnaire for conducting an expert assessment were developed, the results of the survey were processed and the data obtained were analyzed. The analysis of the consistency of expert opinions indicates a moderate level of deviation and an acceptable level of differences in the opinions of the group members. The use of the expert assessment method made it possible to obtain a structured assessment of the risks and significance of various factors. To ensure a comprehensive approach to assessing the risks of RES integration, it is advisable to form a multi-criteria indicator that will take into account the diversity of factors based on expert assessments.