A HYBRID MACHINE-LEARNING ENSEMBLE FOR SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF PHOTOVOLTAIC, SOLAR-THERMAL, AND PV/T GENERATION

• Date: 2026
• Main Author: Karpenko, Dmytro
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2026
• Subjects: short-term solar forecasting; photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) generation; solar-thermal collector; multi-scale LSTM-CNN; XGBoost ensemble; per-horizon weight tuning; adaptive online retraining.
• Online Access: https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/959
• Journal Title: System Research in Energy

Short-term forecasting of solar generation is a prerequisite for the operational integration of distributed solar plants into modern power systems, yet single-family approaches struggle with the asymmetric “bell” distribution of daily output, the limited observability of panel-thermal states, and th...