ASSESSING THE TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE INTEGRATED POWER SYSTEM OF UKRAINE UNDER HIGH PENETRATION OF WIND AND SOLAR GENERATION
This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the technical and economic performance of the Integrated Power System (IPS) of Ukraine under conditions of high penetration of wind and solar power generation. The relevance of the study is driven by the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources (R...
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General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
2026
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| author | Babak, Vitalii Kulyk, Mykhailo Zaporozhets, Artur Denysov, Viktor Kostenko, Ganna |
| author_facet | Babak, Vitalii Kulyk, Mykhailo Zaporozhets, Artur Denysov, Viktor Kostenko, Ganna |
| author_institution_txt_mv | [
{
"author": "Vitalii Babak",
"institution": null
},
{
"author": "Mykhailo Kulyk",
"institution": null
},
{
"author": "Artur Zaporozhets",
"institution": null
},
{
"author": "Viktor Denysov",
"institution": null
},
{
"author": "Ganna Kostenko",
"institution": null
}
] |
| author_sort | Babak, Vitalii |
| baseUrl_str | https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/oai |
| collection | OJS |
| datestamp_date | 2026-07-18T12:57:51Z |
| description | This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the technical and economic performance of the Integrated Power System (IPS) of Ukraine under conditions of high penetration of wind and solar power generation. The relevance of the study is driven by the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources (RES), which introduces increased generation variability, amplifies power imbalances, and complicates real-time system operation and control. The study analyzes the current state of the Ukrainian power system, including structural changes in generation and consumption under wartime conditions and the associated reduction in available capacity. Particular attention is given to daily and seasonal load variability, the stochastic nature of wind and solar generation, and the limited operational flexibility of conventional generation assets. A quantitative assessment is conducted using an optimization framework based on an economic–technological forecasting methodology for determining optimal system development and operation parameters. The model explicitly incorporates battery energy storage systems (BESS), pumped storage power plants (PSPP), constraints on renewable generation curtailment, and balancing market mechanisms. Scenario-based simulations up to 2030, assuming an increase in the RES share to 45–50%, indicate that power imbalances may rise to 600–900 MW, while reserve requirements could reach 6–7 GW. The results demonstrate that the deployment of BESS with a capacity of 1.5–2 GW can reduce imbalances by 30–40%, significantly decrease RES curtailment, and yield annual savings of €80–120 million in balancing costs. The proposed approach enables a more robust evaluation of power system performance under high RES penetration and provides a methodological basis for enhancing system flexibility, reliability, and economic efficiency. The findings can support strategic decision-making regarding the modernization and sustainable development of the IPS of Ukraine. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.15407/srenergy2026.02.081 |
| first_indexed | 2026-05-30T01:00:11Z |
| format | Article |
| fulltext |
© Babak V., Kulyk M., Zaporozhets A., Denysov V., Kostenko G., 2026
Це стаття відкритого доступу за ліцензією CC0 1.0 Universal
https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0
ISSN 2786-7633. Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2026. 2(86) 81
ЕКОЛОГІЧНІ, ЕКОНОМІЧНІ ТА ПРАВОВІ ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ В
ЕНЕРГЕТИЦІ, ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНИЙ МЕНЕДЖМЕНТ
_____________________________________________________________________________
https://doi.org/10.15407/srenergy2026.02.081
УДК 621.311:502.131
Vitalii Babak, Dr. Sci. (Engin.), Professor, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9066-4307
Mykhailo Kulyk, Dr. Sci. (Engin.), Professor, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5582-7027
Artur Zaporozhets, Dr. Sci. (Engin.), Senior Researcher, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0704-
4116
Viktor Denysov*, PhD (Engin.), https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3297-1114
Ganna Kostenko, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8839-7633
General Energy Institute of NAS of Ukraine, 172, Antonovycha St., Kyiv, 03150, Ukraine
*Corresponding author: visedp@gmail.com
__________________________________________________________________________________
ASSESSING THE TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF
THE INTEGRATED POWER SYSTEM OF UKRAINE UNDER HIGH
PENETRATION OF WIND AND SOLAR GENERATION
Abstract. This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the technical and economic performance of
the Integrated Power System (IPS) of Ukraine under conditions of high penetration of wind and solar power
generation. The relevance of the study is driven by the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources (RES),
which introduces increased generation variability, amplifies power imbalances, and complicates real-time
system operation and control. The study analyzes the current state of the Ukrainian power system, including
structural changes in generation and consumption under wartime conditions and the associated reduction
in available capacity. Particular attention is given to daily and seasonal load variability, the stochastic
nature of wind and solar generation, and the limited operational flexibility of conventional generation
assets. A quantitative assessment is conducted using an optimization framework based on an economic–
technological forecasting methodology for determining optimal system development and operation
parameters. The model explicitly incorporates battery energy storage systems (BESS), pumped storage
power plants (PSPP), constraints on renewable generation curtailment, and balancing market mechanisms.
Scenario-based simulations up to 2030, assuming an increase in the RES share to 45–50%, indicate that
power imbalances may rise to 600–900 MW, while reserve requirements could reach 6–7 GW. The results
demonstrate that the deployment of BESS with a capacity of 1.5–2 GW can reduce imbalances by 30–40%,
significantly decrease RES curtailment, and yield annual savings of €80–120 million in balancing costs.
The proposed approach enables a more robust evaluation of power system performance under high RES
penetration and provides a methodological basis for enhancing system flexibility, reliability, and economic
efficiency. The findings can support strategic decision-making regarding the modernization and
sustainable development of the IPS of Ukraine.
Keywords: renewable energy sources, Integrated Power Systems, grid stability and control, power
regulators, mathematical models.
1. Introduction
The integration of large volumes of wind and solar power plants into integrated energy systems leads to
significant changes in their operational and technical and economic characteristics [1‒3]. The main tasks, due
to their critical relevance, are the assessment of power balances, determining the need for shunting capacities
and energy storage, as well as the economic effect of renewable energy integration [4‒14]. In particular, much
attention is paid to the development of Mathematical Models and Programming Tools for Optimizing the
Composition and Operating Modes of Energy Systems Under Rapid Growth of Renewable Energy Capacities
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3297-1114
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8839-7633
mailto:visedp@gmail.com
82 ISSN 2786-7633. Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2026. 2(86)
[4‒7]. Much attention is paid to optimization methodologies and models to determine the required
stability and sufficient capacity in integrated energy systems based on projected electricity production
volumes. [8‒14]. The assessment of the effectiveness of the existing and future operational and technical and
economic characteristics of the IPS with a significant share of wind farms and solar power plants in its structure
is based on a comprehensive analysis of the operating modes of the power system, reliability indicators,
economic feasibility and the level of integration of renewable energy sources. The main purpose of such an
assessment is to determine the limits of the power system's ability to ensure reliable, cost-effective and
balanced operation in the event of an increase in the share of unstable generation. In the process of assessing
the existing characteristics, the actual modes of operation of the integrated energy system are analyzed, in
particular, the balance of active capacity, the level of permissible maneuverability of generating capacities, the
magnitude of energy system imbalances, restrictions on the permissible volumes of generation of renewable
energy sources and the costs of their settlement. Considerable attention is paid to the impact of large volumes
of wind and solar generation on the permissible limits at which the necessary frequency and power regulation
is provided, as well as on the stability of the integrated power system under various load conditions. In order
to adequately assess the prospective characteristics, possible scenarios for the development of the power
system are modeled, taking into account the growth of the installed capacity of wind farms and solar power
plants, the development of energy storage systems, the modernization of maneuverable generating capacities
and the introduction of modern forecasting systems for the generation of renewable energy sources. As part of
this analysis, options are considered for optimizing the generation structure, increasing the flexibility of the
power system and reducing the cost of balancing it.
Technical and economic efficiency is determined on the basis of integral indicators, including the cost
of electricity production, the cost of managing imbalances, investments in the development of grid
infrastructure and energy storage systems, as well as the economic effect of reducing greenhouse gas emissions
and improving energy security. A comparison of existing and future modes of operation makes it possible to
determine the optimal directions for the development of the power system and to formulate recommendations
for improving the efficiency of integrating large volumes of renewable generation. The results of the
assessment can be used to substantiate strategic decisions on the development of the power system, increase
its flexibility and ensure stable operation with a further increase in the share of wind and solar power plants in
the generation structure.
Thus, the scientific novelty of the study can be summarized as follows:
– the development of an economic–technological forecasting method adapted to the conditions of the
Unified Power System (UPS) of Ukraine during the wartime and post-war periods;
– the integration of scenarios into the model that account for battery energy storage systems (BESS) and
pumped storage power plants (PSPP), including a quantitative assessment of their impact on power
imbalances and balancing costs;
– the development of an updated set of scenarios up to 2030, taking into account current generation
constraints and the structure of electricity consumption;
– the derivation of refined technical and economic estimates (power imbalances, reserve requirements,
and economic effects) based on modeling over a 8760-hour time horizon.
2. Initial conditions and generation structure
To assess the efficiency of the regime and technical and economic characteristics of the power system,
the existing and future generation structures of the IPS of Ukraine are considered, taking into account a
significant share of wind (WPP) and solar (SPP) power plants.
2.1. State of Ukraine’s energy system as of February 24, 2022 [15]
The IPS of Ukraine before the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022 looked like this.
The hourly weighted average electricity consumption was 17.67 GWh, the annual total consumption was
154,830 GWh.
The structure of energy resource use was as follows:
̶ nuclear energy – 22.6 %,
ISSN 2786-7633. Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2026. 2(86) 83
̶ natural gas – 23.9 %,
̶ petroleum products – 10.7 %,
̶ hydropower – 11.4 %,
̶ renewable energy sources – 5.9 %.
The distribution of the electricity supply structure was as follows:
̶ nuclear power plants ‒ 56.1 %,
̶ thermal power plants (CHP and TPP) ‒ 29.3 %,
̶ hydroelectric power plants and pumped-storage power plants ‒ 8.7 %,
̶ renewable energy sources ‒ 5.9 %.
The distribution of the total installed capacity of electricity generation in Ukraine amounted to 55,579.2 MW,
including:
̶ NPP — 13,880 MW (15 power units),
̶ TPP and CHP — 30,545 MW (112 power units),
̶ HPP and PSP — 6,646.7 MW (14 hydroelectric facilities),
̶ RES — 4,507.5 MW (by output).
The maximum power of renewable energy generated reached 17 % of the total power load schedule during
daytime in 2021. [16‒20].
2.2. State of Ukraine’s energy system in 2025 [15]
Total installed capacity has been reduced by almost half ‒ minus 42.1% from pre-war levels. Currently,
IPS of Ukraine have 23,379.6 MW in operation:
̶ nuclear generation ‒ 7,880 MW (15 power units),
̶ thermal generation (thermal power plants and combined heat and power plants) ‒ 7,960 MW (30
power units),
̶ hydroelectric power plants and pumped storage ‒ 4,476.7 MW (11 hydropower plants),
̶ renewable energy sources ‒ 3,063.3 MW.
The consumption structure has changed very significantly:
̶ the hourly average consumption has more than halved ‒ from 17.67 to 8.47 GWh;
̶ annual consumption has fallen from over 154 thousand to 74,897 GWh;
̶ the deficit during peak hours remains stable ‒ about 2.7 GWh.
2.3. PowerSystem Performance [16, 17]
Daily Load Range:
̶ Minimum Nighttime Load: 10–11 GW
̶ Daily Maximum: 17–19 GW
̶ Daily Variability: 1.6–1.8
Daily load schedules:
̶ night load: ≈10–12 GW
̶ evening maximum: ≈16–19 GW (winter)
̶ typical peaks: 18:00–22:00
Actual consumption peaks 2025–2026 [18, 19]:
̶ winter peaks 17–18+ GW
̶ constraints due to generation deficit
̶ dependence on imports during peak hours
Available nuclear power capacity [20, 21]:
̶ 9 power units in operation
̶ total capacity ≈7.6–7.8 GW
̶ ZNPP (6 GW) not included
84 ISSN 2786-7633. Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2026. 2(86)
According to the transmission system operator's operational data, the minimum nighttime load in the Ukrainian
IPS is approximately 10-11 GW, while the evening peak reaches 17‒19 GW during the winter. The baseload
is provided by nuclear generation with a capacity of approximately 7.6‒7.8 GW. The maximum-to-minimum
load ratio is 1.6‒1.8, indicating significant daily unevenness in the electricity consumption schedule and the
need for switching capacity, the speed of which is, respectively: for thermal power plants 2–4 %/min, for
hydroelectric power plants 10–20 %/min, for nuclear power plants 1–3 %/min. Total maneuvering reserve 3–
4 GW. At the same time, the amplitude of fluctuations in wind power plant generation is 40‒60 % in 3‒6 hours
and solar power plant generation is up to 80‒90 % in 1-2 hours with a maximum rate of change of renewable
energy generation of 1.5‒2.5 GW/h.
2.4. Power system balancing indicators [22, 23]
Generation imbalances: average imbalance 250–400 MW, peak imbalance 900–1200 MW, nbalance rate
4–6 %. The main sources of imbalance are errors in wind/solar power generation forecasts, rapid changes in
weather conditions, and the limited flexibility of thermal generation.
2.5. Curtailment of renewable energy generation
With high generation from solar and wind power plants and low load, generation restrictions arise with
the following parameters: annual restriction volume of 2–5 %, peak periods in spring and autumn, restriction
capacity of 500–800 MW.
2.6. Economic characteristics [24‒26]
Cost of electricity:
Generation type LCOE, $/MWh
̶ Nuclear power plants 40‒90 (depends on CAPEX and country)
̶ Thermal power plants 70‒120
̶ Solar power plants 35‒45
̶ Wind power plants 30‒50
̶ Hydropower plants 25‒40
Balancing Cost [27‒32]:
Imbalance cost:
As the share of renewable energy sources grows, the role of the balancing market increases. The cost of
imbalances in European power systems is approximately €10–20/MWh, and total balancing costs can reach 4–
6 % of the electricity market value. Annual balancing costs for systems of the Ukrainian scale: ≈€150–300
million, balancing share ≈4–6 % of the electricity market value (typical for systems with a high share of
renewable energy).
3. Prospective development scenarios up to 2030
In the works [7, 33] a method of economic and technological forecasting of the parameters of optimal
functioning and development of the energy system is proposed, due to the use of a modified integral criterion
of the quality of the functional of economic and technological impact. It makes it possible to take into account
the indicators of the development of the national economy and production in the form of quasi-dynamic
functions with discrete stochastic variables, which is important for assessing the ability of the energy system
to provide volumes and modes of energy and power consumption. Also, a mathematical model of the diffusion
of new technologies in the energy sector is proposed, which is a generalization of the model of the mixed
influence of the diffusion of new technologies by Frank Bass [34], which includes the functional of economic
and technological impact. The model allows us to take into account the stochasticity of economic and
technological parameters of the development of the national economy when forecasting the development of
the structure of the integrated energy system in the context of rapid growth of renewable energy capacities.
The proposed [7, 33] use of a set of regression models in the form of generalized logistic curves makes it
possible to improve the efficiency of forecasting, taking into account that the values of the modeling parameters
obtained using the method of least squares do not contradict the experimental data. On the basis of the above,
ISSN 2786-7633. Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2026. 2(86) 85
a model of long-term technological renewal of the structure of the unified energy system has been developed,
which allows to assess the potential for improving the components of the power system (Table 1).
The proposed method of economic and technological forecasting of the parameters of optimal
functioning and development of energy systems and the economic and mathematical model of long-term
technological renewal of the structure of the unified energy system, are implemented in the problem-oriented
software and information complex SOPS [35], which contains software modules of models for optimizing the
modes of operation of energy systems.
Table 1. Known and new/improved models
KNOWN MODELS NEW AND IMPROVED MODELS
The Fundamental Model of
Innovation Diffusion
Method of Economic-Technological Forecasting for Optimal Operation
and Development Parameters of the Energy System
Dynamic Models of Cyclical Development of Generation Systems
Long-term Technological Renewal Model of Consumption Structure
and Generating Capacity of Ukraine's Integrated Power Systems
The use of a modified model of mixed impact made it possible to calculate scenarios for the development
of economic and technological coefficients (Fig. 1), which are components of the functionality of economic
and technological influence, which is included in the new method of economic and technological forecasting
of the parameters of optimal functioning and development of the energy system and a new generalized model
of energy technology development in the form of a sum of several logistic curves (1):
( ) ( ) ( )
( )
( ) ( ) ( )( )
1
1 , ,
=
+ = + + −
J
jk k k k k
m j j j jk
j j
q
P P K F k p P P P
P
(1)
where:
mK – scaling factor; ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ), , , , , , = F k F PPF ET k FCF k EGR – functional of economic
and technological impact, in which (Fig. 1): 𝑃𝑃𝐹(𝜏) is the regional purchasing power parity, ET(k,τ) is the
efficiency of technology, FCF(k,τ) is the final cost coefficient, 𝐸𝐺𝑅(𝜏) is the economic growth rate.
Fig. 1. Dynamics of economic and technological indicators of economic and production development for Ukraine (UA)
and Germany (G)
86 ISSN 2786-7633. Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2026. 2(86)
The generalized model in the form of the sum of several logistic curves is an integral part of the model
of long-term technological renewal of the structure of consumption and generating capacity of the IPS of
Ukraine. According to the method of economic and technological forecasting of the parameters of optimal
functioning and development of the energy system, the forecast is calculated in three stages.
At the first stage, using a generalized logistics model (1), the forecast of consumption volumes of the
IPS of Ukraine until 2030 was calculated.
At the second stage, using the formulas of net benefit ( )= −k m k kK LACE LCOENB and minimization
of the total cost of generation
1
min
=
= →
K
k
S k S
k
C NB E , the ratio of capacities and volumes of generation
technologies was calculated.
At the third stage, the task of minimizing the total mismatch between generation and consumption
volumes (2) was solved and scenarios for the development of the IPS of Ukraine until 2030 were obtained.
( ) ( ) ( )
1
, , , ) ,
=
= − → S CE E u k k min (2)
4. Calculation results
Forecast of installed capacity (GW): WPP 7–8, SPP 10–12, BESS 1.5–2, PSPP 2.2. Total RES capacity
18–20. Share of RES in generation: 40–50 %.
Expected parameters
Indicator Current status 2030
Share of RES 28 % 45–50 %
Imbalances 400 MW 600–900 MW
Curtailment 3 % 8–12 %
Necessary reserve 3 GW 6–7 GW
Efficiency of storage systems (BESS).
Installing 2 GW of storage allows: reducing imbalances by 30–40 %, reducing curtailment to 50 %, and
achieving balancing savings of €80–120 million/year.
Economic effect of RES integration: reduce fuel imports by €1.2–1.6 billion/year, reduce CO₂ emissions
by 15–20 million tons/year, and increase energy security by 20–25 %.
The use of the model on the horizon of 8760 hours allowed:
̶ Estimate annual peak and minimum imbalances;
̶ to determine the volume of renewable energy curtailment;
̶ Evaluate the use of BESS in charge/discharge modes
̶ to calculate the integral economic efficiency.
4.1. Example results (current scenario)
Indicator Value Notes
Average imbalance 320 MW ±5 %
Maximum imbalance 1.2 GW occurs during peak RES generation
RES limitations 3 % of annual production spring-autumn peaks
BESS usage 1.5 GW SOC from 20 % to 100 %
4.2. Perspective scenario 2030
Indicator Value
Share of RES 45-50 %
Need for maneuvering reserve 6–7 GW
Annual curtailment 8-12 %
Use of BESS 2 GW
ISSN 2786-7633. Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2026. 2(86) 87
4.3. Economic indicators
Indicator Current 2030
LCOE of generation, $/MWh 45–70 35–60
Balancing costs, €m/year 180 300–350
Savings from BESS, €m/year 0 80–120
CO₂ reduction, mt/year 0 15–20
5. Discussion
The results of the modeling confirm that the key factor determining the efficiency of the IPS of Ukraine
with a high share of wind farms and solar power plants is the level of flexibility of the power system. An
increase in the installed capacity of renewable energy sources to 45–50 % leads to a significant increase in the
amplitude of generation fluctuations, which is directly reflected in the magnitude of imbalances and
requirements for capacity reserves. The analysis showed that with the current generation structure, the main
balancing burden falls on thermal power plants, which have a limited rate of capacity change (2–4 %/min). In
the context of abrupt changes in the generation of solar power plants and wind farms, this is not enough to
ensure the stability of the system without a significant increase in balancing costs. The use of energy storage
systems (BESS) demonstrates high efficiency as a tool for compensating for short-term imbalances. The
simulation results show that the use of BESS can significantly smooth out imbalance peaks, reduce the load
on maneuverable generation, and reduce the volume of RES constraints. At the same time, not only a technical,
but also an economic effect is achieved by reducing the cost of imbalances. Promising scenarios until 2030
indicate the need for an integrated approach to the development of the energy system. A simple increase in the
share of RES without a corresponding increase in flexibility leads to a deterioration in regime indicators: an
increase in imbalances, an increase in curtailment and the need for significant reserves. Separately, it should
be noted that the use of the method of economic and technological forecasting of the parameters of optimal
functioning and development of the energy system allows taking into account both short-term and long-term
effects of RES integration, including seasonal fluctuations in generation and load. This provides a more reliable
assessment of the efficiency of various scenarios for the development of the power system.
6. Conclusions
The application of the economic–technological forecasting methodology, combined with a model of
long-term structural transformation of the power system, has enabled the development of predictive scenarios
for the IPS of Ukraine up to 2030 and a quantitative assessment of its operational and economic performance.
1. A substantial increase in the share of wind and solar generation leads to a pronounced growth in power
imbalances due to the inherent variability and limited predictability of renewable energy sources.
2. At RES penetration levels of 45–50 %, average imbalances are projected to reach 600–900 MW, while
the required volume of maneuvering reserves increases to 6–7 GW, highlighting the need for structural
modernization of the generation mix.
3. Conventional thermal generation alone is insufficient to provide the flexibility required to compensate
for rapid fluctuations in renewable generation, resulting in increased balancing costs and reduced
overall system efficiency.
4. The integration of battery energy storage systems (BESS) with a total capacity of 1.5–2 GW represents
one of the most effective flexibility solutions, enabling a reduction in imbalances by 30–40 %, a
significant decrease in RES curtailment, and improved system stability.
5. The large-scale integration of renewable energy sources yields substantial economic and
environmental benefits, including a reduction in fuel imports by €1.2–1.6 billion annually and a
decrease in CO₂ emissions by 15–20 million tons per year; however, it requires considerable
investments in flexibility-enhancing technologies.
6. The most promising directions for the development of the IPS of Ukraine include the large-scale
deployment of energy storage systems, expansion of pumped storage capacity, and the implementation
of advanced forecasting systems for renewable generation.
88 ISSN 2786-7633. Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2026. 2(86)
Overall, the results underscore the necessity of transitioning toward advanced system management
paradigms based on optimization methods and digital technologies, ensuring reliable, flexible, and cost-
efficient operation of the power system under high levels of renewable energy integration.
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ОЦІНКА ТЕХНІЧНОЇ ТА ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ ЕФЕКТИВНОСТІ
ОЕС УКРАЇНИ ЗА УМОВ ВИСОКОЇ ДОЛІ ВІТРОВОЇ ТА
СОНЯЧНОЇ ГЕНЕРАЦІЇ
Віталій Бабак, д-р техн. наук, професор, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9066-4307
Михайло Кулик, д-р техн. наук, професор, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5582-7027
Артур Запорожець, д-р техн. наук, ст. досл., https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0704-4116
Віктор Денисов*, канд. техн. наук, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3297-1114
Ганна Костенко, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8839-7633
Інститут загальної енергетики НАН України, вул. Антоновича, 172, Київ, 03150, Україна
*Автор-кореспондент: visedp@gmail.com
Анотація. У статті представлено оцінку технічної та економічної ефективності функціонування
ОЕС України за умов високої долі вітрової та сонячної генерації. Актуальність дослідження
зумовлена стрімким зростанням частки відновлюваних джерел енергії (ВДЕ), що призводить до
підвищеної варіативності генерації, посилює дисбаланс енергії та ускладнює роботу та керування
системою в реальному часі. Дослідження аналізує поточний стан української енергетичної
системи, включаючи структурні зміни у виробництві та споживанні в умовах війни, а також
https://www.iclub.energy/lection/12_investytsii-v-elektroenerhetyku-ta-enerhoefektyvnist
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9066-4307
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5582-7027
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0704-4116
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3297-1114
mailto:visedp@gmail.com
90 ISSN 2786-7633. Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2026. 2(86)
пов’язаний зі зменшенням доступних потужностей. Особлива увага приділяється змінності
щоденного та сезонного навантаження, стохастичній природі вітрової та сонячної генерації, а
також обмеженій операційній гнучкості звичайних генераційних активів. Кількісна оцінка
проводиться за допомогою оптимізаційної системи на основі економічно-технологічної
методології прогнозування для визначення оптимальних параметрів розробки системи та
функціонування. Модель включає системи акумуляторного зберігання енергії (BESS), гидро
акумулюючи електростанції з насосним накопиченням (PSPP), обмеження обсягу відновлюваної
генерації та механізми балансування ринку. Сценарні моделювання до 2030 року, за умови
збільшення частки ВДЕ до 45–50 %, свідчать, що дисбаланс потужності може зрости до 600–
900 МВт, тоді як резервні потреби можуть сягати 6–7 ГВт. Результати показують, що
впровадження BESS з потужністю 1,5–2 ГВт може зменшити дисбаланси на 30–40 %, суттєво
зменшити обмеження ВДЕ та забезпечити річну економію на балансуванні у розмірі €80–120
мільйонів. Запропонований підхід дозволяє більш ґрунтовно оцінити продуктивність
енергосистеми за умов високої долі ВДЕ та забезпечує методологічну основу для підвищення
гнучкості, надійності та економічної ефективності системи. Результати можуть бути
корисними для стратегічного прийняття рішень щодо модернізації та сталого розвитку ОЕС
України.
Ключові слова: відновлювані джерела енергії, інтегровані енергетичні системи, регулятори енергії,
математичні моделі.
Дата першого надходження статті до журналу: 01.04.2026
Дата прийняття статті до друку після рецензування: 27.05.2026
Дата публікації (оприлюднення): 30.05.2026
|
| id | systemreorg-article-960 |
| institution | System Research in Energy |
| keywords_txt_mv | keywords |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-07-19T01:24:20Z |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine |
| record_format | ojs |
| resource_txt_mv | systemreorg/8d/e4aa73891f7e43ea49ac812bca1d5a8d.pdf |
| spelling | systemreorg-article-9602026-07-18T12:57:51Z ASSESSING THE TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE INTEGRATED POWER SYSTEM OF UKRAINE UNDER HIGH PENETRATION OF WIND AND SOLAR GENERATION Оцінка технічної та економічної ефективності оес україни за умов високої долі вітрової та сонячної генерації Babak, Vitalii Kulyk, Mykhailo Zaporozhets, Artur Denysov, Viktor Kostenko, Ganna renewable energy sources, Integrated Power Systems, grid stability and control, power regulators, mathematical models. відновлювані джерела енергії, інтегровані енергетичні системи, регулятори енергії, математичні моделі. This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the technical and economic performance of the Integrated Power System (IPS) of Ukraine under conditions of high penetration of wind and solar power generation. The relevance of the study is driven by the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources (RES), which introduces increased generation variability, amplifies power imbalances, and complicates real-time system operation and control. The study analyzes the current state of the Ukrainian power system, including structural changes in generation and consumption under wartime conditions and the associated reduction in available capacity. Particular attention is given to daily and seasonal load variability, the stochastic nature of wind and solar generation, and the limited operational flexibility of conventional generation assets. A quantitative assessment is conducted using an optimization framework based on an economic–technological forecasting methodology for determining optimal system development and operation parameters. The model explicitly incorporates battery energy storage systems (BESS), pumped storage power plants (PSPP), constraints on renewable generation curtailment, and balancing market mechanisms. Scenario-based simulations up to 2030, assuming an increase in the RES share to 45–50%, indicate that power imbalances may rise to 600–900 MW, while reserve requirements could reach 6–7 GW. The results demonstrate that the deployment of BESS with a capacity of 1.5–2 GW can reduce imbalances by 30–40%, significantly decrease RES curtailment, and yield annual savings of €80–120 million in balancing costs. The proposed approach enables a more robust evaluation of power system performance under high RES penetration and provides a methodological basis for enhancing system flexibility, reliability, and economic efficiency. The findings can support strategic decision-making regarding the modernization and sustainable development of the IPS of Ukraine. У статті представлено оцінку технічної та економічної ефективності функціонування ОЕС України за умов високої долі вітрової та сонячної генерації. Актуальність дослідження зумовлена стрімким зростанням частки відновлюваних джерел енергії (ВДЕ), що призводить до підвищеної варіативності генерації, посилює дисбаланс енергії та ускладнює роботу та керування системою в реальному часі. Дослідження аналізує поточний стан української енергетичної системи, включаючи структурні зміни у виробництві та споживанні в умовах війни, а також пов’язаний зі зменшенням доступних потужностей. Особлива увага приділяється змінності щоденного та сезонного навантаження, стохастичній природі вітрової та сонячної генерації, а також обмеженій операційній гнучкості звичайних генераційних активів. Кількісна оцінка проводиться за допомогою оптимізаційної системи на основі економічно-технологічної методології прогнозування для визначення оптимальних параметрів розробки системи та функціонування. Модель включає системи акумуляторного зберігання енергії (BESS), гидро акумулюючи електростанції з насосним накопиченням (PSPP), обмеження обсягу відновлюваної генерації та механізми балансування ринку. Сценарні моделювання до 2030 року, за умови збільшення частки ВДЕ до 45–50 %, свідчать, що дисбаланс потужності може зрости до 600–900 МВт, тоді як резервні потреби можуть сягати 6–7 ГВт. Результати показують, що впровадження BESS з потужністю 1,5–2 ГВт може зменшити дисбаланси на 30–40 %, суттєво зменшити обмеження ВДЕ та забезпечити річну економію на балансуванні у розмірі €80–120 мільйонів. Запропонований підхід дозволяє більш ґрунтовно оцінити продуктивність енергосистеми за умов високої долі ВДЕ та забезпечує методологічну основу для підвищення гнучкості, надійності та економічної ефективності системи. Результати можуть бути корисними для стратегічного прийняття рішень щодо модернізації та сталого розвитку ОЕС України. General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2026-05-30 Article Article application/pdf https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/960 10.15407/srenergy2026.02.081 System Research in Energy; No. 2 (86) (2026): System Research in Energy; 81-90 Системні дослідження в енергетиці; № 2 (86) (2026): Системні дослідження в енергетиці; 81-90 2786-7102 2786-7633 en https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/960/845 Copyright (c) 2026 Vitalii Babak, Mykhailo Kulyk, Artur Zaporozhets, Viktor Denysov, Ganna Kostenko https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0 |
| spellingShingle | renewable energy sources Integrated Power Systems grid stability and control power regulators mathematical models. Babak, Vitalii Kulyk, Mykhailo Zaporozhets, Artur Denysov, Viktor Kostenko, Ganna ASSESSING THE TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE INTEGRATED POWER SYSTEM OF UKRAINE UNDER HIGH PENETRATION OF WIND AND SOLAR GENERATION |
| title | ASSESSING THE TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE INTEGRATED POWER SYSTEM OF UKRAINE UNDER HIGH PENETRATION OF WIND AND SOLAR GENERATION |
| title_alt | Оцінка технічної та економічної ефективності оес україни за умов високої долі вітрової та сонячної генерації |
| title_full | ASSESSING THE TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE INTEGRATED POWER SYSTEM OF UKRAINE UNDER HIGH PENETRATION OF WIND AND SOLAR GENERATION |
| title_fullStr | ASSESSING THE TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE INTEGRATED POWER SYSTEM OF UKRAINE UNDER HIGH PENETRATION OF WIND AND SOLAR GENERATION |
| title_full_unstemmed | ASSESSING THE TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE INTEGRATED POWER SYSTEM OF UKRAINE UNDER HIGH PENETRATION OF WIND AND SOLAR GENERATION |
| title_short | ASSESSING THE TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE INTEGRATED POWER SYSTEM OF UKRAINE UNDER HIGH PENETRATION OF WIND AND SOLAR GENERATION |
| title_sort | assessing the technical and economic performance of the integrated power system of ukraine under high penetration of wind and solar generation |
| topic | renewable energy sources Integrated Power Systems grid stability and control power regulators mathematical models. |
| topic_facet | renewable energy sources Integrated Power Systems grid stability and control power regulators mathematical models. відновлювані джерела енергії інтегровані енергетичні системи регулятори енергії математичні моделі. |
| url | https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/960 |
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