POSSIBILITIES OF USING THE TIMES SOFTWARE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE NON-GUARANTEED RENEWABLE ENERGY

• Datum: 2023
• Автори та афіліації: M. Kuznietsov — Institute of Renewable Energy NAS Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine; O. Lysenko — Tavria State Agrotechnological University, Swedish Environmental Research Institute, IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet, Gothenburg, Sweden
• Ключові слова: keywords
• Hauptverfasser: Kuznietsov, M., Lysenko, O.
• Format: Artikel
• Sprache: Ukrainisch
• Veröffentlicht: Institute of Renewable Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2023
• Schlagworte: TIMES software; renewable energy sources; non-guaranteed capacity; risk factor.
• Online Zugang: https://ve.org.ua/index.php/journal/article/view/425
• Назва журналу: Vidnovluvana energetika

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the possibilities of using the model of long-term energy development forecasting to adequately reflect the features of renewable energy sources (RES) of non-guaranteed power (solar, wind), as temporal variability and the level of uncertainty. The tasks of long-term modeling of energy development require a comprehensive approach, taking into account all the features of various energy sources. The combination of energy systems requires a coordinated approach to planning their development. One of the means of optimal planning is the TIMES software complex, which has also some application in Ukraine. However, the growth of the renewable sources share of non-guaranteed capacity imposes additional requirements on the mathematical apparatus. The TIMES climate and stochasticity modules are not designed for the random nature of RES. The work proposes to use the available capabilities of the program aimed at ensuring the flexibility of approaches, supplementing them with RES uncertainty factors. New content is added to some attributes of commodities, commodity flows and processes, which allows us to take into account possible deviations around expected values. The random nature of RES can be described through indicators of dispersion of values and probability density distribution. The risk factor is used as a technical parameter, by which it is possible to obtain a range of solutions with a given reliability. This allows us to consider the probability of imbalance of current energy flows, providing a certain margin of stability of the energy system within reasonable margins. Bible 12, fig. 1.