THE INFLUENCE OF WIND SPEED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS ON THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WIND FARMS IN ENCLOSED SEAS: A CASE STUDY OF THE AZOV-BLACK SEA REGION OF UKRAINE

The problems of determining the main parameters of probability distributions of wind speed, assessing their impact on the energy efficiency of wind power plants and the characteristics of power generation variability are considered. Energy efficiency is characterized by the power factor. Its calcula...

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Datum:2025
Автори та афіліації:
  • P. Vasko — Institute of Renewable Energy, NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
  • I. Mazurenko — Institute of Renewable Energy, NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
  • R. Sysak — Institute of Renewable Energy, NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
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Hauptverfasser: Vasko , P., Mazurenko , I., Sysak , R.
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Veröffentlicht: Institute of Renewable Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2025
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Vidnovluvana energetika
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author Vasko , P.
Mazurenko , I.
Sysak , R.
author_facet Vasko , P.
Mazurenko , I.
Sysak , R.
author_institution_txt_mv [ { "author": "P. Vasko ", "institution": "Institute of Renewable Energy, NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine" }, { "author": "I. Mazurenko ", "institution": "Institute of Renewable Energy, NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine" }, { "author": "R. Sysak ", "institution": "Institute of Renewable Energy, NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine" } ]
author_sort Vasko , P.
baseUrl_str https://ve.org.ua/index.php/journal/oai
collection OJS
datestamp_date 2026-07-18T06:32:22Z
description The problems of determining the main parameters of probability distributions of wind speed, assessing their impact on the energy efficiency of wind power plants and the characteristics of power generation variability are considered. Energy efficiency is characterized by the power factor. Its calculation is performed using the Weibull distribution. The primary parameters are the average wind speed and the scale and shape parameters of the distribution. Possible limits of the ranges of parameter changes in the Azov-Black Sea region are determined. An analysis of current databases and available results of instrumental measurements of wind speed in the studied region is carried out to obtain quantitative estimates of the parameters. The need for additional short-term measurements of wind speed at the construction sites of wind power plants is justified to adjust information from multi-year databases. Mathematical models are developed, and a numerical experiment is conducted to determine the achievable annual value of capacity factor and characteristics of power generation variability by coastal and offshore plants during the year in the region.  Bibl. 68, tables 4, fig. 4.   
doi_str_mv 10.36296/1819-8058.2025.3(82).125-136
first_indexed 2025-10-01T01:30:53Z
format Article
fulltext 125 Відновлювана енергетика. № 3/2025 | Вітроенергетика УДК 621.311.25: 628.165 https://doi.org/10.36296/1819-8058.2025.3(82).125-136 THE INFLUENCE OF WIND SPEED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS ON THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WIND FARMS IN ENCLOSED SEAS: A CASE STUDY OF THE AZOV-BLACK SEA REGION OF UKRAINE Received Sept. 04, 2025; accepted Sept. 22, 2025 Available online Sept. 30, 2025 Vasko P.2, Mazurenko I.2, Sysak R.3 Author for correspondence: Mazurenko Iryna, e-mail: irynalmazurenko@gmail.com Abstract. The problems of determining the main parameters of probability distributions of wind speed, assessing their impact on the energy efficiency of wind power plants and the characteristics of power generation variability are considered. Energy efficiency is characterized by the power factor. Its calculation is performed using the Weibull distribution. The primary parameters are the average wind speed and the scale and shape parameters of the distribution. Possible limits of the ranges of parameter changes in the Azov-Black Sea region are determined. An analysis of current databases and available results of instrumental measurements of wind speed in the studied region is carried out to obtain quantitative estimates of the parameters. The need for additional short-term measurements of wind speed at the construction sites of wind power plants is justified to adjust information from multi-year databases. Mathematical models are developed, and a numerical experiment is conducted to determine the achievable annual value of capacity factor and characteristics of power generation variability by coastal and offshore plants during the year in the region. Bibl. 68, tables 4, fig. 4. Keywords: probability, distribution, wind speed, wind farm, offshore area, energy efficiency, power, variability. ВПЛИВ ПАРАМЕТРІВ ІМОВІРНІСНИХ РОЗПОДІЛІВ ШВИДКОСТІ ВІТРУ НА ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНУ ЕФЕКТИВНІСТЬ ПРИБЕРЕЖНИХ ТА ОФШОРНИХ ВІТРОЕЛЕКТРИЧНИХ СТАНЦІЙ У ЗАКРИТИХ МОРЯХ НА ПРИКЛАДІ АЗОВО-ЧОРНОМОРСЬКОГО РЕГІОНУ УКРАЇНИ Отримано 04 вер. 2025 р.; рекомендовано до публікації 22 вер. 2025 р. Доступно онлайн 30 вер. 2025 р. Васько П. Ф.1, Мазуренко І. Л.2, Сисак Р. М.3 Автор для кореспонденції: Мазуренко Ірина, e-mail: irynalmazurenko@gmail.com Анотація. Розглянуто питання визначення основних па- раметрів імовірнісних розподілів швидкості вітру, оці- нки їх впливу на енергетичну ефективність вітроелек- тростанцій та характеристики нерівномірності генерування потужності. Енергетичну ефективність характеризовано коефіцієнтом потужності. Його розрахунок виконано з викорис-танням функції щільності розподілу Вейбула. Основними парамет- рами слугують середнє значення швидкості вітру, параметри масштабу і форми розподілу. Визначено можливі межі діапазонів зміни параметрів в Азово-Чорноморському регіоні. Проведено аналіз чинних баз даних та наявних результатів інструментальних вимірювань швидкості вітру в досліджуваному регі- оні для отримання кількісних оцінок параметрів. Обґрунтовано необхідність проведення додаткових короткотривалих вимірювань швидкості вітру в місцях спорудження вітроелектростанцій для коре- гування інформації багаторічних баз даних. Розроблено математичні моделі та проведено числовий експеримент з визначення досяжного річного значення Capacity factor та характеристик нерівно- 1 Dr. of Science (Tech.) https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8807-7173 2 Cand. of Science (Tech.) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0146-7396 3 Cand. of Science (Tech.) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4474-4776 1, 2, 3 Institute of Renewable Energy, NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine 1 д-р. техн. наук https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8807-7173 2 канд. техн. наук https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0146-7396 3 канд. техн. наук https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4474-4776 1, 2, 3 Інститут відновлюваної енергетики НАН України, м. Київ, Україна 126 Відновлювана енергетика. № 3/2025 | Вітроенергетика мірності генерування потужності прибережними та офшорними станціями протягом року в регіоні. Бібл. 68, табл. 4, рис. 4. Ключові слова: імовірність, розподіл, швидкість вітру, вітроелектростанція, морська акваторія, ене- ргетична ефективність, потужність, нерівномірність. Introduction. Over the past decades, the world community has been rightly concerned about the energy future, which has prompted scientists to focus on solving urgent issues related to global warming, energy security strategies, and dependence on fossil fuel energy consumption. The growth of the share of renewable energy sources in the fuel and energy balance of countries around the world contributes to the conservation of energy resources and water, and the improvement of the environment by reducing atmospheric pollution. Today, offshore wind energy (where wind turbines are sit- uated in the sea), one of the sectors of renewable energy, is experiencing rapid development in the world [1,2]. The main reason for the emergence of the practice of placing offshore wind power plants (WPP) is explained by the pres- ence of stronger and longer-lasting winds in marine areas and on the coast, compared to winds on land, as well as fewer technological restrictions on the installation of wind turbines. In addition, the construction of offshore WPPs en- ables countries with limited land areas and the presence of marine territorial waters to expand the production of envi- ronmentally friendly energy. Another advantage is the pos- sibility of locating an offshore WPP in the sea near a large industrial facility, which enables reducing the cost of trans- mitting electricity to the facility through centralized power grids. The possibilities of creating marine energy islands [3– 5] and pumped storage plants, both land-based and sea- based, for storing energy from renewable sources [6,7] and smoothing power fluctuations [8] are being considered. Offshore wind farms are built on the continental shelf at depths of up to 40 m, or on floating platforms [9,10]. There is a practice of effective use of offshore wind farms on flat coastal areas [11,12]. On the European continent, offshore wind projects in the open seas have long been considered competitive. Thus, the installed capacity of offshore wind farms in the EU as of 2023 was 36.5 GW [13], and in 2024 it increased and reached 39.1 GW [14]. Five European countries (Great Brit- ain, the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, and Germany) have a share of offshore wind energy of more than 10% of the total capacity of wind farms. For the UK, it is about 50%. Potential areas for the construction of offshore wind farms are also closed sea areas (closed seas), the wind energy po- tential of which is of significant importance, as confirmed by the results of research on wind resources in the Medi- terranean Sea [15,16], the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf [17,18], the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov [19]. Offshore wind farms in closed seas can solve a number of energy and technological problems, such as generating electricity for integration into power systems [20], supplying technologi- cal systems for desalination of seawater [21,22] and electrolyzers for the production of “green” hydrogen [23,24]. Ukraine is involved in the implementation of the European program “2×40 GW Green Hydrogen Initiative” [25,26], which emphasizes the construction of 10 GW of electrolyzer capacity for the production of “green” hydro- gen using wind energy in the Azov-Black Sea region. The program envisages the production of green hydrogen in Ukraine in the amount of 1.65 million tons per year, with the consumption of prepared fresh water of about 24 mil- lion m3/year [27]. Achieving the specified volumes of “green” hydrogen production requires the construction of about 40 GW of installed capacity of renewable energy sources [28,29]. The specified capacity is too high for paral- lel operation with the country's power system, which prompts the identification of ways to integrate stochastic electricity generation from wind farms into technological schemes for hydrogen production and seawater desalina- tion. Implementing large-scale wind power projects in the en- closed seas of the Azov-Black Sea region of Ukraine requires more accurate estimates of energy efficiency than those specified in the available atlases of wind resource potential, which can only serve as a basis for selecting potential terri- tories and forming strategic plans for the development of wind energy. A decrease in the wind power plant efficiency by (20-25) % from the expected value may turn the project into unattractive or uncompetitive. The result of a quanti- tative assessment of energy efficiency depends mainly on the accuracy of multi-year wind speed distributions at the height of the rotation axis. For the specified region, wind speed distributions can be obtained only by mathematical modeling, since the results of multi-year instrumental measurements are absent. As part of the Horizon Europe program of the European Commission, a project to build a floating wind turbine with a capacity of 5 MW [30] is being implemented to directly determine the wind speed distri- butions and energy efficiency of offshore WPPs in the Black Sea. However, as of today, reliable determination of the en- ergy efficiency of WPPs in the region at the stage of pre- project studies is problematic due to the uncertainty in the probability distribution parameters and the vertical wind speed profile. The solution to this problem is also relevant for other seas on the planet, which is covered in a signifi- cant number of scientific publications, in particular [31–41]. The research task is to obtain a quantitative assessment of the influence of the wind speed probability distribution pa- rameters on the energy characteristics of coastal and off- shore wind farms in the Azov-Black Sea region of Ukraine by solving a number of problems regarding the selection of wind speed databases at the operating heights of wind 127 Відновлювана енергетика. № 3/2025 | Вітроенергетика turbines and taking into account the results of instrumental measurements of wind speed in the open seas. Theoretical provisions of the study. The energy efficiency of wind power plants will be assessed by the value of the Capacity factor (CF), which is calculated in relative units (percentages) and serves as a universal indicator for power plants of arbitrary capacity [42]: ( ) )( InstSS PTECF = (1) with: ES – the amount of electricity produced by the WPP at the metering point during a given time interval; Т – dura- tion of the given time interval; InstSP )( – installed capacity of the WPP. The components of equation (1) will be determined for a multi-unit WPP built from the same type of horizontal-axis wind turbines, taking into account the wind speed proba- bility distribution at the height of the wind turbine's center of rotation (hub height) as follows [43]:   = 0 )()()()()( dvvfvPNkNkNkNTE WTlagS , (2) потWTInstS PNP )()( = (3) with: N – number of wind turbines of the same type in the WPP; kg – WPP’s technical readiness factor, determined by the reliability of the equipment and shutdowns of wind tur- bines due to ice accumulation on the blades in the periods when there is suitable wind; ka – coefficient of aerody- namic mutual shading of wind turbines in the WPP; kl – co- efficient of electricity losses in the WPP scheme and in the power transmission line to the destination facility [44,45]; v – wind speed at the wind turbine’s hub height; PWT(v) – functional dependence of wind turbine power on wind speed; f(v) – probability density of the wind speed at the hub height during time T; (PWT)nom – nominal power of the wind turbine. Approximate values of the coefficients kg, ka, kl for successful WPP projects are within the following limits: kg (N) = 0.97,...,0.94; ka (N) = 1.0,...,0.9; kl (N) = 0.97,...,0.9, (4) where the left limits of the ranges correspond to N=1. After substituting (2), (3) into (1), we obtain a universal ex- pression for calculating the energy efficiency of a WPP pro- ject of arbitrary capacity built from wind turbines of the same type:   = 0 )()( dvvfvPCF S , (5) )()()()()( vPNkNkNkvP WTlagS = , потWTWTWT PvPvP )()()( = , with: )(vPS , )(vPWT – functional dependences of WPP and wind turbine power (in p.u.) on wind speed at hub height. According to the obtained expressions (5) and (4), the de- pendence of the power factor of a multi-unit WPP on the number of units in the plant is minor. The main factors in- fluencing the energy efficiency of the installed equipment are the functional dependence of the wind turbine power on the wind speed and its probability distribution at the hub height in a given time interval at the plant location. Since modern offshore wind turbines with a nominal power of 3–6 MW and with a variable rotation frequency have identical power characteristics )(vPWT [46,47], the choice of a specific type of wind turbine also has little effect on the energy efficiency of the WPP. Based on the analysis of 6 commercial installations with a nominal wind speed of 12– 13.5 m/s from 4 manufacturers, an averaged characteristic of the wind turbine power was obtained for further use in this study (Table 1). Table 1. Averaged power characteristics of the offshore wind turbine v, m/s )(vPWT , p.u. v, m/s )(vPWT , p.u. v, m/s )(vPWT , p.u. 3.5 0.0 9.0 0.55 12.5 0.99 4.5 0.05 10.0 0.75 13.0 0.995 5.0 0.08 10.5 0.85 13.5 1.0 6.0 0.15 11.0 0.92 14.0 1.0 7.0 0.26 11.5 0.97 25.0 1.0 8.0 0.40 12.0 0.98 >25.0 0.0 The hub height of most of the mentioned wind turbines is in the range of 90–135 m above sea level. To perform a nu- merical experiment to assess energy efficiency, we will also use the following value of the product of the coefficients kg, ka, kl in (5): ( ) ( ) ( ) 9.0= NkNkNk lag . (6) Now let us consider the peculiarities of the wind speed probability density function determined at the wind tur- bine’s hub height f(v), which is included in the formula for energy efficiency (5). The function f(v) is an analytical gen- eralization of the series of real-time measurements (mod- eling) of wind speed ordered in magnitude increasing [48]. For wind conditions in the Azov-Black Sea region of Ukraine at heights above the earth's (sea) surface of about 100 m, 128 Відновлювана енергетика. № 3/2025 | Вітроенергетика it is advisable to use the analytical expression of the Weibull distribution, which was substantiated in [43]:           −= − v vvf exp)()( 1 , 0v ; (7) with v – wind speed,  – scale parameter;  – shape pa- rameter. Evaluation of wind speed distribution parameters based on measurement results Jjv j ,,2,1, = , (8) will be performed with the use of the maximum likelihood method [49,50]. First, the value v of the average wind speed is determined:  = = J j jv J v 1 1 , (9) and then the following quantities are computed: dispersion (D) –  = − − = J j j vv J D 1 2)( 1 1 , m2/s2 ; (10) standard deviation (s) – Ds = , m/s; (11) coefficient of variation (kv) – vskv = , (12) shape parameter – 075.1− = vk , (13) scale parameter –   1 1 1       =  = J i jv J , m/s. (14) Taking into account that the average value of the wind speed is equal to the first moment of the distribution (7), we obtain: ( )   = − ==      − 0 1 1 1 exp J j jv J vdv v vv     . (15) Equation (15) is a direct functional relationship between the parameters of the probability density and the average value of the wind speed computed on the measurement re- sults. Based on the analysis of (5), (15), it can be noted that aver- age wind speed as well as scale and shape parameters are sufficient to characterize the wind speed probability distri- bution used to calculate the energy efficiency of a WPP:  ,,v . (16) Since the results of long-term measurements of wind speed at the wind turbine’s hub height at the site of the WPP con- struction are usually absent, the question arises of model- ing the wind speed distribution based on generalized infor- mation in available global databases. To take into account the change in wind speed at different heights, we will use a power function [51,52]: vm h h v v       = 2 1 2 1 , (17) with mv – a parameter of the vertical wind speed profile that takes into account the influence of the surrounding landscape on the wind speed at a given location, h1, h2 – height above sea (land) surface level, v1, v2 – wind speed at the corresponding heights. The peculiarities of using existing databases of wind speed measurement (modeling) results to assess the energy effi- ciency of wind farms for coastal and offshore areas of the Azov-Black Sea region of Ukraine are considered in the fol- lowing sections. A brief review of existing offshore wind speed databases. There are currently several global climate reanalysis data- bases of wind speeds obtained by using a numerical atmos- pheric model at regular spatial grid nodes based on ground- based and satellite-based meteorological parameter meas- urements: Era Retrospective analysis (ERA-Interim) [53], Era Retrospective analysis fifth generation (ERA5) [54], Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Appli- cations Version 2 (MERRA-2) [55]. The ERA-Interim database has a spatial resolution of 79 km and 6-hourly measurements at 10 m height for the period from 1979 to 2019, but access via the developer website, ECMWF, has been discontinued since June 2023. The ERA5 database contains hourly wind speed data at 100 m height with a spatial grid size of 31 km. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Web Platform for Geospatial Analysis and Visualization of Renewable Energy Potential [56], in particular, wind resources in North and Central America, was created based on ERA5. MERRA-2 provides access to monthly, daily, and hourly wind direction and speed data at 10 and 50 m heights for the period 1980–2021 with a spatial resolution of 50 km. Based on MERRA-2, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA POWER) software package [57] was developed with online visualization of meteorological datasets. The suitability of satellite data for determining offshore wind energy potential was assessed in [58] by comparing ground-based observations with ERA5 and MERRA-2 rea- nalysis data. It was noted that the reanalysis data for low wind speeds (˂ 4 m/s) tend to overestimate and slightly un- derestimate the values for areas with strong winds (˃ 7 m/s). A comparative analysis of the power factors of existing WPPs in Germany, Denmark, France, Sweden and the USA with calculated values using wind speed data from ERA5 and MERRA-2 showed [59] that the ERA5 information is more accurate. In [60], ERA5 and MERRA-2 wind speed data were used for a comparative analysis with actual wind farm performance in the USA, Brazil and New Zealand. For the United States and Brazil, the ERA5 data generally had lower errors and higher average correlation coefficients than MERRA-2. However, the MERRA-2 forecasts for New Zealand were more accurate than those from ERA5. Additional opportunities for obtaining information on wind parameters are provided by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) marine observation and monitoring infrastructure [61], which covers water surfaces in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans, open to them seas and bays. Drifting and moored marine high-level buoys with installed anemome- ters are used to measure wind speed. Wind speed measure- ment data at the height of the buoy anemometer can be re- trieved for any period up to a year with a ten-minute discrete 129 Відновлювана енергетика. № 3/2025 | Вітроенергетика interval. However, not all stations indicated on the infra- structure visualization map are available for data collection due to their privacy or other reasons. Also, the operation of many stations displayed on the map has been discontinued. The values of the parameters of the wind speed probability distributions of the open seas based on the results of instru- mental studies. Let us determine the quantitative values of the wind speed probability distribution parameters (16) based on the available information in open sources. A long- term assessment of onshore wind resources was performed for the coastal area of Jeju Island in South Korea. During the year, measurements were made at three heights using a ma- rine weather mast installed at a distance of 1.5 km from the coast [31]. To obtain the probability distribution of wind speed, the measurement-correlation-prediction (MCP) method was employed, utilizing MERRA-2 wind speed data at a height of 50 m for a 30-year period, and then converted to the wind turbine’s hub height using the power law. The essence of the MCP method is that the correlation between wind speed measurements using a marine weather mast at the location of the future WPP and the MERRA-2 wind speed data is checked. A sufficiently strong correlation indicates that the method can be used to predict wind speed data at the location of a new WPP. The MERRA-2 wind speed data for a 30-year period are linearly transformed to the location of the future station. The result is a data set of sufficient du- ration for further calculations. The study used the maximum likelihood method to determine the probability distribution parameters. At a height of 100.5 m, the average wind speed was 7.61 m/s, and the values of the scale and shape param- eters were: 55.8= m/s, 89.1= , respectively. The parameters of the wind speed probability distribution near Taiwan Island [32] were obtained based on the results of measurements using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology, which offers greater mobility of imple- mentation compared to traditional data collection using a weather mast. Based on the results of wind speed meas- urements over a five-month period at a height of 100 m, a correlation relationship was determined with the long- term database of a coastal weather station and the follow- ing values of the wind speed probability distribution param- eters at the specified height at the location of the future offshore WPP were obtained: 99.9=v m/s, 29.11= m/s, 84.1= . For the design of offshore WPP near the eastern coast of the Atlantic Ocean (USA), an analysis of wind speeds in the ocean area was conducted [33]. At a wind turbine’s hub height of 90 m, the values of the wind speed probability dis- tribution parameters are equal to: 65.8=v m/s, 77.9= m/s, 12.2= . The most extensive instrumental studies of wind speeds were carried out in the North Sea near the Netherlands on the Europlatform (EPL) [34,35] and Wintershall K13A (K13A) [36,37] platforms. Measurements were carried out using LiDAR technology at heights from 63 m to 291 m above the average sea level. The probability distribution parameters obtained from these results are given in Ta- ble 2. An increase in the scale parameter and a decrease in the shape parameter are observed with an increase in the average wind speed and the height at which it was measured. The ranges of change in the values of the wind speed probability distribution parameters are: ( )95.1122.10 −= m/s, ( )32.295.1 −= . At heights of 91–141 m, which correspond to the hub height of most modern offshore wind turbines, the parameter values are in the ranges: ( )25.1157.10 −= m/s, ( )29.205.2 −= . Table 2. Parameters of wind speed probability distributions for locations in the North Sea h, m 63.0 91.0 116.0 141.0 166.0 191.0 216.0 241.0 266.0 291.0 Europlatform (EPL) (51°59’ N; 3°16’ E) at a distance of 60 km from the coast for the period 2016-2020. [21] v , m/s 9.37 9.66 9.84 9.98 10.10 10.19 10.27 10.33 10.39 10.44 α, m/s 10.58 10.91 11.11 11.27 11.40 11.51 11.60 11.67 11.73 11.79  2.24 2.20 2.16 2.13 2.09 2.07 2.05 2.03 2.02 2.01 Europlatform (EPL) (51°59’ N; 3°16’ E) at a distance of 60 km from the coast for the period 2016-2022 [22] v , m/s 9.05 9.35 9.52 9.67 9.79 9.89 9.97 10.04 10.11 10.18 α, m/s 10.22 10.57 10.77 10.95 11.08 11.20 11.30 11.39 11.49 11.58  2.15 2.11 2.08 2.05 2.03 2.00 1.98 1.97 1.96 1.95 Wintershall K13A (K13A) (53°22’ N; 3°22’) at a distance of 101 km from the coast for the period 2016-2019 [23] v , m/s 9.30 9.69 9.92 10.08 10.19 10.27 10.33 10.37 10.40 10.42 α, m/s 10.48 10.92 11.19 11.37 11.50 11.59 11.66 11.70 11.74 11.76  2.32 2.29 2.25 2.21 2.17 2.14 2.12 2.10 2.08 2.07 Wintershall K13A (K13A) (53°22’ N; 3°22’) at a distance of 101 km from the coast for the period 2016-2020 [24] v , m/s 9.42 9.81 10.04 10.20 10.31 10.40 10.46 10.51 10.55 10.57 α, m/s 10.64 11.08 11.34 11.52 11.65 11.75 11.82 11.88 11.92 11.95  2.30 2.27 2.23 2.19 2.16 2.12 2.10 2.07 2.06 2.04 130 Відновлювана енергетика. № 3/2025 | Вітроенергетика Determination of the vertical wind profile parameter for open sea based on the results of instrumental studies. The availability of the results of synchronous instrumental meas- urements of wind speed at 10 different heights in the North Sea (Table 2) makes it possible to determine the dependence of the vertical profile parameter vm of the power function (17) on the height above the average sea surface level using the following formula: ( ) ( ) ( )0 0 ln ln hh vv hm i i v = , ihh 0 , ni ...2,1= , Nn , (18) with 0h – the lowest height of the measuring device, 0v – wind speed at a height ih , iv – wind speed at a height ih , N – number of the measuring devices. The calculated value of the vertical wind speed profile pa- rameter according to (18) at a low height of the measuring device is sensitive to errors in the measurements of 0v caused by the orography of the terrain and shading of the device, waves on the sea surface, and local atmospheric cir- culation. This error affects the results of wind speed mod- eling according to (17) at all predicted heights. The vertical wind speed profile parameter values for loca- tions in the North Sea, calculated by (18) with the data of Table 2 at different heights, are given in Table 3. The lowest height of the measuring device was 63 m, which eliminated the influence of orography on the measurements. The vis- ualization of the obtained functional dependences mv(h) is presented in Fig. 1. Functional dependencies for different locations have the same tendency to decrease the parameter mv with increas- ing height h, but they differ in the absolute values of the parameter at low heights. In particular, at a height of 100 m the difference is about 20% and decays to zero at heights above 260 m. The duration of observations in the interval of 5-7 years has practically no effect on mv(h). Table 3. Vertical wind speed profile parameter values for locations in the North Sea h, m Europlatform (EPL) (51°59’ N; 3°16’ E) (60km) Wintershall K13A (K13A) (53°22’ N; 3°22’ E) (101km) 2016-2020 2016-2022 2016-2019 2016-2020 v , m/s mv v , m/s mv v , m/s mv v , m/s mv 63 9.37 0.0829 9.05 0.0887 9.30 0.112 9.42 0.11 91 9.66 0.0802 9.35 0.0841 9.69 0.106 9.81 0.104 116 9.84 0.0783 9.52 0.0823 9.92 0.0999 10.04 0.0987 141 9.98 0.0774 9.67 0.0811 10.08 0.0943 10.20 0.093 166 10.10 0.0756 9.79 0.08 10.19 0.0895 10.31 0.0892 191 10.19 0.0744 9.89 0.0786 10.27 0.0852 10.40 0.0849 216 10.27 0.0727 9.97 0.0774 10.33 0.0812 10.46 0.0816 241 10.33 0.0717 10.04 0.0769 10.37 0.0776 10.51 0.0787 266 10.39 0.0707 10.11 0.0768 10.40 0.0743 10.55 0.0753 291 10.44 – 10.18 – 10.42 – 10.57 – Fig. 1. Dependences of the vertical wind profile parameter on height above the average sea level at two locations in the North Sea Parameters of probability distributions of wind speed in the Azov-Black Sea region of Ukraine. Currently, there are no instrumental studies of offshore wind speed in the Azov-Black Sea region in general, and in Ukraine as well, at a height of about 100 m. However, there are studies assessing the potential of wind energy re- sources in the region, which have demonstrated the feasi- bility of using wind energy on an industrial scale [10, 19, 62 – 64]. These studies employed various methods to model wind speed at the wind turbine’s hub height. For offshore areas of Romania, the parameters of the prob- ability distribution of wind speeds at a distance of 20-60 km from the coast at a height of 80 m were determined based on ERA-Interim data for a 20-year period [39]. The wind speed values were determined by extrapolating data from a ground-based anemometer installed at a height of 10 m and the following values of the probability distribution pa- rameters were obtained: 3.7=v m/s, 19.8= m/s, 15.2= . Modeling and analysis of the energy perfor- mance of a virtual offshore wind farm on the southwestern Black Sea coast of Turkey [19] was carried out using hourly NASA POWER wind speed data for 2022 at a height of 50 m above sea level and the following values of the probability distribution parameters were obtained: 76.5=v m/s, 49.6= m/s, 42.2= . 131 Відновлювана енергетика. № 3/2025 | Вітроенергетика The probability distribution of wind speeds for the southern coast of the Sea of Azov at a height of 100 m was obtained on the basis of modeling using the results of long-term wind speed measurements at the Mysova weather station, which is located on a cape between the Black and Azov seas [43]. The anemometer was installed at a height of 24 m above sea level. The parameters of the wind speed probability distribu- tion were calculated using the analytical method of mo- ments. The average annual wind speed was estimated to be approximately 7.5 m/s, and the values of the scale and shape parameters were 8.45 m/s and 2.54, respectively. In [63], the spatial distribution of the average annual wind speed over the Sea of Azov at the heights of 50, 100 and 200 m was an- alyzed using GIS modeling, and the amounts of potentially generated electricity were calculated. It was found that maxi- mum wind speeds are concentrated in the area of the north- ern and northeastern coast of the Sea of Azov. The offshore area of the sea is characterized by significant wind energy potential. The parameters of the wind speed probability dis- tributions were not determined. In [65], for the territory of Ukraine and its sea areas, modeling of average annual wind speeds and indicators of the technical potential of wind en- ergy resources at heights of 10 and 100 m was carried out. The results of observations at 70 weather stations and rea- nalysis data for heights of 10 and 50 m were used as input data. The parameters of the wind speed probability distribu- tion were not determined. In 2020, the World Bank assessed the technical potential of stationary and floating offshore wind power in Ukraine within 200 kilometers of the coastline [10]. Information from the Global Wind Atlas [62] was used. The achievable value of the installed capacity of offshore wind farms is 251 GW (183 GW – stationary, 68 GW – floating). The volumes of electricity production by offshore wind farms and the pa- rameters of the probability distribution of wind speeds were not determined. In 2023, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL, USA), with financial support from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), completed the de- velopment of an electronic database for Ukraine on the country's wind resource at a height of 10 m to 200 m above ground level, covering the period 2000-2022 and provided in a high spatial resolution of 2 km and with a time interval of 5 minutes [66]. NREL provides the following options for data retrieval: for single locations or small areas – through the RE Data Explorer (https://www.re-explorer.org/) [67], for large amounts of data – using application programming interface (API) (https://developer.nrel.gov/docs/wind/wind-toolkit/ sup3rwind-ukraine-download), through the cloud-based Highly Scalable Data Service (HSDS) on Amazon Web Services (AWS) (https://github.com/NREL/sup3r/examples/sup3rwi nd), directly from Open Energy Data Initiative (OEDI) cloud- based storage [66] (nrel-pds-wtk/sup3rwind/ukraine/v1.0.0 /5min). The provided information about the wind resource can serve as a basis for determining the parameters of the wind speed probability distributions in the Azov-Black Sea re- gion of Ukraine at the heights of the centers of rotation of the rotors of modern wind turbines in the absence of instru- mental research results. While there are no instrumental measurements of wind speed for the offshore waters of the Azov-Black Sea region of Ukraine, for the northern coastal areas in Zaporizhia and Mykolaiv regions, they were carried out at commissioned industrial wind farms with heights of wind turbine centers of rotation about 100 m. In accordance with the conditions of martial law and for security reasons, let us mark the lo- cations of wind farms by symbols LM and LZ, respectively. Based on the results of many years of measurements, the following quantities of the wind speeds probability distri- butions parameters were obtained: location LZ – 737.7=v m/s, 7325.8= m/s, 328.2= ; (19) location LM – 584.7=v m/s, 5525.8= m/s, 445.2= . (20) The numerical experiment and analysis of the results will be carried out for two coastal locations on the Black and Azov seas (19), (20) and at the location of a virtual offshore sta- tionary wind farm in the Black Sea (LBS location) with a hub height of 100 m above the average level of the Earth’s (sea) surface. The location in the Black Sea was selected in accord- ance with the offshore wind potential distribution schemes for the maritime territory of Ukraine [10, 65] and is located at a distance of 35.6 km from Odesa and 83.8 km from My- kolaiv with the following geographical coordinates: LBS (46°27’ N; 31°11’ E). (21) Let us first determine the energy efficiency of wind farms for coastal locations by calculating the Capacity factor using the parameters of the wind speed probability distribution obtained from the RE Data Explorer database for the period 2018-2022 and also from instrumental measurements (19), (20). The input data and the obtained results are given in Table 4 and Fig. 2. Table 4. Parameters of probability distributions of wind speed at a height of 100 m for the period 2018-2022 Location LM Location LZ Location LBS (46°27’ N; 31°11’E) Distribution parameters CF Distribution parameters CF Distribution parameters CF v , m/s α, m/s  v , m/s α, m/s  v , m/s α, m/s  RE Data Explorer database 6.603 7.43 2.455 0.269 7.115 7.964 2.2 0.316 7.516 8.4845 2.2 0.356 Experimental data Assumption 7.584 8.553 2.445 0.362 7.737 8.733 2.328 0.375 8,0 9.0321 2.2498 0.397 https://github.com/NREL/sup3r/examples/sup3rwind https://github.com/NREL/sup3r/examples/sup3rwind 132 Відновлювана енергетика. № 3/2025 | Вітроенергетика The obtained results show that for coastal areas, the achiev- able CF value calculated according to the data of the RE Data Explorer database is 26% lower than the results of instru- mental measurements for the LM location and 16% lower for the LZ location. Therefore, on the intended sites of new wind power plants construction in this region, it is necessary to set up short-term (one to two years) instrumental measuring of wind speed to adjust long-term data from the RE Data Ex- plorer database. It can also be noted that the contribution of winds with a speed of 20 m/s and above to the energy effi- ciency of wind power plants is not significant. In this range of wind speed changes, wind turbines can be stopped to reduce aeromechanical forces on the construction, in order to ex- tend the operational life. It is worth noting that the Capacity factor indicators for two coastal wind power plants obtained during the study are consistent with the results of their op- eration, presented in the annual reports of the respective power companies, in particular [68]. Fig. 2. Capacity factor distribution by wind speeds for coastal wind farms in the Azov-Black Sea region of Ukraine The results of CF calculation according to the RE Data Ex- plorer database for the Black Sea location are shown in Fig. 3. The achievable CF value is even slightly lower than for coastal wind farms according to the results of instrumental measurements, which once again confirms that wind speed values in the RE Data Explorer database for this location are underestimated. There is an obvious need to conduct short-term measurements in order to adjust long-term data from the RE Data Explorer database for the sea areas of the Azov-Black Sea region of Ukraine as well. The value of the vertical wind profile parameter according to the RE Data Explorer data does not change up to a height of 200 m inclusive and is equal to 0.065, which does not coincide with the results for the open sea (Fig. 1). Therefore, it is ad- visable to conduct short-term measurements at no less than two heights that cover the range of the wind turbine hub heights. Taking into account the obtained average annual wind speed values for the considered wind farms based on the measurement results and information from the database, let us determine CF at a height of 100 m for the LBS location under the assumption v = 8.0 m/s. Estimation of the scale and shape parameters of the probability distribution under this assumption can be found using the analytical depend- ence [48, 50]: ( ) 11+=v , (22) with Г – symbol of Gamma function. Fig. 3. Capacity factor distribution by wind speed for a vir- tual wind farm in the Black Sea Equation (22) includes two unknown variables, so its approx- imate solution was obtained with an assumption regarding the value of  . According to the results of the above analy- sis of instrumental measurements of wind speed at a height of 100 m in the North Sea and on the coast of the Azov-Black Sea region, the numerical value of the parameter  can be in the range: 4.21.2   . Therefore, the estimate of the distribution scale parameter as given in (22), obtained under the condition 25.2= , is approximately 0321.9= m/s. Then we can refine the value of  using the method of suc- cessive approximations from the equality: ( ) dv v vv                −=   − 0 1 0321.9 exp0321.9/0.8   , 2498.2= , (23) that follows from (15). 133 Відновлювана енергетика. № 3/2025 | Вітроенергетика The results of the Capacity factor calculation under these assumptions are also presented in Fig. 3. The achievable CF value reaches 0.4, which is 12% higher than computed from the data of RE Data Explorer. The limitation of the operating wind speed range to 20 m/s can also be applied to offshore wind farms. The results obtained for different locations demonstrate the key role of the parameter v in achieving the required level of wind farm power efficiency. The values of the scale and shape parameters of the probability affect only the in- tensity of attaining the maximum CF value in the range of operating wind speeds. The intensity of CF change is characterized by the duration of power generation at a certain level according to )(vPS . We will calculate the duration of wind speed in an arbitrary range of change during the year using the density function (7): ( ) 8760expexp 21 212,1                        −−               −=−=   vv TzzT (hours), (24) ( )                −=−= 0 exp1   v dvvfz , (25) with 1v , 2v – limits of the wind speed range, z – proba- bility that the random variable of wind speed will exceed a certain given level (probabilistic assurance). The results of computational studies of the probabilistic assurance of the capacity )(zPS of coastal and virtual off- shore plants, which characterize the variability of the electricity generation process during the year, are pre- sented in Fig. 4. They show that under the conditions of the wind regime in the region, the stations will generate electricity for 7780 hours per year. The duration of wind farms’ operation with maximum capacity is expected for coastal locations to be about 1000 hours, and for off- shore locations to be about 1400 hours per year. The op- eration of the plants at a capacity of more than 60% of the nominal value will last for coastal locations LM and LZ as well as offshore location LBS, 2300, 2500, 2800 hours per year, respectively. The estimate of the duration for other levels of power generation can be determined in a similar way. Fig. 4. Probabilistic assurance of coastal and offshore wind farms capacity on annual time interval According to the results in Fig. 4, another characteristic of the electricity generation process variability can be ob- tained, which consists of estimating the duration of the plant's operation in a specific range of power changes. In particular, the station at the LM location will generate power in the range from 40% to 60% of the nominal value for 1100 hours per year (3400 – 2300 hours, Fig. 4). The du- rations of other required power ranges are determined similarly. Conclusions. 1. The main parameters of the wind speed probability dis- tribution used in wind power problems include the average annual speed value, along with the scale and shape param- eters. Results from different locations have shown that the average annual wind speed value plays a crucial role in achieving the desired level of energy efficiency in a wind power plant. The scale and shape parameters of the distri- bution influence only the speed at which the maximum Ca- pacity factor is achieved within the operating wind speed range and characterize the variability of power generation throughout the year. 2. For the offshore territories of the Azov-Black Sea region, there are no results of long-term instrumental studies of wind speed. The main information for determining the pa- rameters of the wind speed probability distribution in the region can be RE Data Explorer, the long-term database of renewable energy resources, which is a product of model- ing using the results of satellite and remote sensing of the atmosphere. However, for the development of offshore 134 Відновлювана енергетика. № 3/2025 | Вітроенергетика wind energy, it requires adjustment based on the results of short-term (within one to two years) measurements of wind speed at a minimum of two heights, covering the range of the wind turbine hub heights. 3. Provided that wind energy projects for the Azov-Black Sea region of Ukraine are implemented properly, the an- nual Capacity factor values can reach up to 36% for coastal wind farms and up to 40% for offshore wind farms. The pro- cess of electricity generation will be characterized by signif- icant variability. According to the wind regime in the region, the plants will operate 7780 hours per year. The duration of wind farm operation at maximum power is expected to be about 1000 hours for coastal locations, and about 1400 hours for offshore locations, per year. The plant's operation at over 60% of its capacity will last approximately 2400 hours per year for coastal locations and around 2800 hours for offshore locations. Power generation in the range from 40% to 60% of the nominal value will be performed for 1100 hours per year. The developed mathematical models enable determining the duration of wind power plant oper- ation in arbitrary ranges of power production. 4. 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spelling veorgua-article-5572026-07-18T06:32:22Z THE INFLUENCE OF WIND SPEED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS ON THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WIND FARMS IN ENCLOSED SEAS: A CASE STUDY OF THE AZOV-BLACK SEA REGION OF UKRAINE ВПЛИВ ПАРАМЕТРІВ ІМОВІРНІСНИХ РОЗПОДІЛІВ ШВИДКОСТІ ВІТРУ НА ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНУ ЕФЕКТИВНІСТЬ ПРИБЕРЕЖНИХ ТА ОФШОРНИХ ВІТРОЕЛЕКТРИЧНИХ СТАНЦІЙ У ЗАКРИТИХ МОРЯХ НА ПРИКЛАДІ АЗОВО-ЧОРНОМОРСЬКОГО РЕГІОНУ УКРАЇНИ Vasko , P. Mazurenko , I. Sysak , R. probability, distribution, wind speed, wind farm, offshore area, energy efficiency, power, variability. імовірність, розподіл, швидкість вітру, вітроелектростанція, морська акваторія, енергетична ефективність, потужність, нерівномірність. The problems of determining the main parameters of probability distributions of wind speed, assessing their impact on the energy efficiency of wind power plants and the characteristics of power generation variability are considered. Energy efficiency is characterized by the power factor. Its calculation is performed using the Weibull distribution. The primary parameters are the average wind speed and the scale and shape parameters of the distribution. Possible limits of the ranges of parameter changes in the Azov-Black Sea region are determined. An analysis of current databases and available results of instrumental measurements of wind speed in the studied region is carried out to obtain quantitative estimates of the parameters. The need for additional short-term measurements of wind speed at the construction sites of wind power plants is justified to adjust information from multi-year databases. Mathematical models are developed, and a numerical experiment is conducted to determine the achievable annual value of capacity factor and characteristics of power generation variability by coastal and offshore plants during the year in the region.  Bibl. 68, tables 4, fig. 4.    Розглянуто питання визначення основних параметрів імовірнісних розподілів швидкості вітру, оцінки їх впливу на енергетичну ефективність вітроелектростанцій та характеристики нерівномірності генерування потужності. Енергетичну ефективність характеризовано коефіцієнтом потужності. Його розрахунок виконано з викорис-танням функції щільності розподілу Вейбула. Основними параметрами слугують середнє значення швидкості вітру, параметри масштабу і форми розподілу. Визначено можливі межі діапазонів зміни параметрів в Азово-Чорноморському регіоні. Проведено аналіз чинних баз даних та наявних результатів інструментальних вимірювань швидкості вітру в досліджуваному регіоні для отримання кількісних оцінок параметрів. Обґрунтовано необхідність проведення додаткових короткотривалих вимірювань швидкості вітру в місцях спорудження вітроелектростанцій для корегування інформації багаторічних баз даних. Розроблено математичні моделі та проведено числовий експеримент з визначення досяжного річного значення Capacity factor та характеристик нерівномірності генерування потужності прибережними та офшорними станціями протягом року в регіоні. Бібл. 68, табл. 4, рис. 4.      Institute of Renewable Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2025-09-28 Article Article application/pdf https://ve.org.ua/index.php/journal/article/view/557 10.36296/1819-8058.2025.3(82).125-136 Vidnovluvana energetika ; No. 3(82) (2025): Scientific and applied Journal renewable energy ; 125-136 Возобновляемая энергетика; ##issue.no## 3(82) (2025): Scientific and applied Journal renewable energy ; 125-136 Відновлювана енергетика; № 3(82) (2025): Науково-прикладний журнал Відновлювана енергетика; 125-136 2664-8172 1819-8058 10.36296/1819-8058.2025.3(82) en https://ve.org.ua/index.php/journal/article/view/557/467 Copyright (c) 2025 P. Vasko , I. Mazurenko , R. Sysak https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
spellingShingle probability
distribution
wind speed
wind farm
offshore area
energy efficiency
power
variability.
Vasko , P.
Mazurenko , I.
Sysak , R.
THE INFLUENCE OF WIND SPEED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS ON THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WIND FARMS IN ENCLOSED SEAS: A CASE STUDY OF THE AZOV-BLACK SEA REGION OF UKRAINE
title THE INFLUENCE OF WIND SPEED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS ON THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WIND FARMS IN ENCLOSED SEAS: A CASE STUDY OF THE AZOV-BLACK SEA REGION OF UKRAINE
title_alt ВПЛИВ ПАРАМЕТРІВ ІМОВІРНІСНИХ РОЗПОДІЛІВ ШВИДКОСТІ ВІТРУ НА ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНУ ЕФЕКТИВНІСТЬ ПРИБЕРЕЖНИХ ТА ОФШОРНИХ ВІТРОЕЛЕКТРИЧНИХ СТАНЦІЙ У ЗАКРИТИХ МОРЯХ НА ПРИКЛАДІ АЗОВО-ЧОРНОМОРСЬКОГО РЕГІОНУ УКРАЇНИ
title_full THE INFLUENCE OF WIND SPEED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS ON THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WIND FARMS IN ENCLOSED SEAS: A CASE STUDY OF THE AZOV-BLACK SEA REGION OF UKRAINE
title_fullStr THE INFLUENCE OF WIND SPEED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS ON THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WIND FARMS IN ENCLOSED SEAS: A CASE STUDY OF THE AZOV-BLACK SEA REGION OF UKRAINE
title_full_unstemmed THE INFLUENCE OF WIND SPEED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS ON THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WIND FARMS IN ENCLOSED SEAS: A CASE STUDY OF THE AZOV-BLACK SEA REGION OF UKRAINE
title_short THE INFLUENCE OF WIND SPEED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS ON THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WIND FARMS IN ENCLOSED SEAS: A CASE STUDY OF THE AZOV-BLACK SEA REGION OF UKRAINE
title_sort influence of wind speed probability distribution parameters on the energy efficiency of coastal and offshore wind farms in enclosed seas: a case study of the azov-black sea region of ukraine
topic probability
distribution
wind speed
wind farm
offshore area
energy efficiency
power
variability.
topic_facet probability
distribution
wind speed
wind farm
offshore area
energy efficiency
power
variability.
імовірність
розподіл
швидкість вітру
вітроелектростанція
морська акваторія
енергетична ефективність
потужність
нерівномірність.
url https://ve.org.ua/index.php/journal/article/view/557
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